Week 13 Preview and Picks

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Week 13

Jets vs. Redskins
The Jets escaped again last week at home vs. Buffalo.  Now they travel to Washington, who has had a momentum boost with Grossman taking over at QB again.  Washington matches up really well against the Jets, because the Jets weakest link right now is their offensive line.  Sanchez has been getting hit far too much and therefore throwing more interceptions.  Besides that, Hall of the Redskins has spoken about Sanchez and his tendency to stare down the receiver he is going to right after the snap.  Teams are recognizing this, and this has also been resulting in more interceptions and pick sixes.  He needs to break this trend. He is giving the other teams a heads up as to who he is throwing to and very seldom does he go to his second or third options.  He needs to do this, and this week they are getting LT back, so he will be able to at least check down to LT if his first option is not there.  Sanchez is key to the Jets success.  In Jets wins this year, he has 13 TDs and 6 INTs.  In their losses, he has 5 TDs and 5 INTs.  He will need to take what his offensive line gives him, hopefully they step up, and he can buy some time to make big plays.  The Jets need this game if they want to stay in the playoff hunt.
Jets (-3) Win

Colts vs. Patriots
In 1992, the Buffalo Bills covered a 20 point spread twice.  That was the last time a team covered a 20+ spread.  The Colts are starting UCONN alum, Dan Orlovsky, and I just don't think they will be able to hang close, plus the Patriots love to keep scoring even when the game is out of reach.
Patriots (-21) Loss

Titans vs. Bills

Bills are reeling, even after almost pulling off a victory at the Meadowlands.  Stevie Johnson was fined for his endzone celebration and this guy lets things get to him.  I think he might not have a very productive day, and without him it is hard for the Bills to get the big plays.  Tennessee has a solid defense and maybe Chris Johnson has finally found his rhythm on offense.  If he did, he can have another huge game against a bad Bills defense.  I look for this game to be very close, but I think that Tennessee is playing with more confidence at this point in the season.

Titans (+1) Win

Chiefs vs. Bears
This is the matchup of injured QBs.  The Chiefs are going with Palko as their starter.  They have Orton on the bench who would be an immediate upgrade, but they are sticking with Palko.  The Bears are sending out Hanie again.  Last week they kept it close in Oakland.  They need to stick to the running game and not take away carries from Forte.  If Forte has another week sharing carries with Barber, then I expect him to start shutting it down and making a statement that he does not deserve to split carries.  I am taking Kansas City with the points, but I think Chicago will win if Forte doesn't have to share again.
Chiefs (+8) Win

Raiders vs. Dolphins
Raiders are traveling across the country, and Miami is well rested after their Thanksgiving nail biter.  Oakland has been playing good football as of late with Carson Palmer getting a grasp on the playbook.  McFadden will still be out, but Bush continues to carry the load well.  With Tebow coming up strong, Oakland has to keep their foot on the gas and not let the Broncos tie the division, but Moore and Ford are not going to be starting again, limiting what Palmer can do. I think it will be close, but I do not know if Oakland can win again without three starters on offense.  I think it will be close either way.  Heyward-Bey needs to have a more productive day than last week if they want to beat a hot Miami team on the road.  I like the Raiders getting 3 points in this one, even though they might lose by a point or two.
Raiders (+3) Loss

Bengals vs. Steelers
Here we go again, another test for the Bengals.  After keeping things close against the Steelers and Ravens in consecutive weeks, they put up a stinker against the Browns at home last week but still won.  They were lucky to win that game and now have to travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers again.  The Steelers almost let one slip away against the Chiefs last week in an ugly game.  I expect a playoff type battle in this one.  After the close games both these teams played last week, I expect another close one between these two teams.
Bengals (+7) Loss

Falcons vs. Texans
Falcons have been playing well, and White has been a reason for it.  In the last two weeks, he has put up numbers that we have come to expect in past seasons.  Two weeks ago, he had 7 catches for 147 yards.  Last week he caught 10 passes for 120 yards and a TD.  With this kind of production, the Falcons are a very dangerous team.  The Texans will be starting Yates again, so they will rely heavily on Foster and Tate and Atlanta will be able to stack the box.  I like Atlanta in this one.
Falcons (-1.5) Win
 
Panthers vs. Buccaneers
Both these teams are out of the playoff hunt.  The Bucs have lost 5 in a row and Freeman is not starting because of a shoulder injury.  Cam Newton on the other hand, is having a stellar season, but the rest of his team is not that good.  I would look for a huge game from Newton and Smith.  Carolina is ranked 6th in road passing, and 4th in road rushing.  This is up against Tampa's 29th home passing defense and 17th home rushing defense ranks.  I like Carolina to win this game.
Panthers (-2) Win

Broncos vs. Vikings
I believe in Tebow.  After last weeks comeback and overtime win, I can not do anything but believe in the Broncos and what Tebow has done for this team.  Earlier this week he was asked by head coach John Fox to give a speech to the team, and the team responded well.  This kid is getting it done and I will take him until he gives me a reason not to.
Broncos (even) Win

Packers vs. Giants
Giants look awful right now, but they need to put up a good game here to end all of the negative talk.  I think they keep it relatively close here.  With Bradshaw coming back, it might ignite the running game.  Eli continues to pile up yards as Cruz keeps putting up monster numbers.  Don't forget about Nicks on the other side of the hash marks.  The Giants have the weapons to keep it close, but do they have the heart?  The Packers are...well...the Packers.  They will probably put up 35 points in this one, it is just a matter of Eli keeping up.  They are the best team in the league, and if they are clicking on defense, then the Giants will get blown away.  But in a huge game before playing Dallas, I think the Giants put up a fight and build some momentum for next week. 
Giants (+7) Win

Ravens vs. Browns
Browns have Hillis back at running back, but I think the Ravens are a better team, but not as good as they believe they are.  But, if they are serious contenders in the AFC, then there is no reason they do not beat the Browns by more than a TD.
Ravens (-7) Win

Rams vs. 49ers
The Rams are not a good team this season and the 49ers are 7-0-1 against the spread in their last 8.  Got to keep it going this week.
49ers (-14) Win

Cowboys vs. Cardinals
I think the Cowboys blow the Cardinals away in this one.  They are without Austin again, but Laurent Robinson has stepped in and put up huge numbers.  He has scored at least one TD in five straight games, and in those five games, he has a total of 7 TDs.  There is no reason to expect anything different this week.  Murray is still running with the top backs in the league and Romo is in the zone lately.  Dallas wins this game easily.
Cowboys (-4.5) Loss

Lions vs. Saints
The Saints are starting to destroy teams again at home.  This game worries me if I am Detroit.  After all the publicity with the Suh stomping incident and now a car crash, it is going to be interesting to see how they respond.  Stafford has been turning the ball over like crazy since week 8, when he fractured his index finger.  He has thrown 9 interceptions in 3 weeks.  If he continues this, then look for another bad loss for Detroit.  New Orleans has been utilizing Jimmy Graham perfectly.  He had 5 catches for 84 yards and 2 TDs.  He is unstoppable, and Brees is even better.  He had a historic game last week and is on fire, but I think Stafford finds Calvin Johnson in this game and they have a big day, good enough to keep it close.
Lions (+9) Loss

Monday Night Football

Chargers vs. Jaguars
I don't see any way that the Chargers don't win this game.  Yes they have lost six in a row, but they have a lot more skill than the Jags, so it will be hard to understand if they lose this one.  They need to pull off a win here to not be completely embarrassed.  The Jaguars are bad and if the Chargers don't show up tonight, then they probably won't show up for the rest of their games.  Rivers needs to prove he has some fight in him.  I am going to think that the Chargers will show minimal effort, and that should be enough to win.
Chargers (-3) Win

TNF: Seattle (+3) Won

Check my post for thoughts on this weeks games here...
http://nargonsports.blogspot.com/2011/12/week-13-review.html

Week 12 Review

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Giants vs. Saints
The Giants could not get to Brees, and therefore did not stand a chance in this one.  Brees tied the NFL record for most 350+ yard games in an NFL season at 6 as he put up 363 yards.  He also became the first QB ever with 4 TD's, no picks, 350+ yards, 60% completion, and a rushing TD in the same game.  Eli put up 406 yards, but most of these yards were coming from behind, when they were playing catch up.  Cruz had 9 catches for 157 and 2 TDs for the Giants.  Graham led the Saints with 84 yards and 2 TDs, and survived a crushing hit.  It looked bad, but he got up from it thankfully.  The Giants need to straighten themselves out if they have any hopes of the playoffs.  They face the Packers next week...good luck. 
Giants (+7.5) Loss

Bills vs. Jets

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Jets needed a win to stay in the playoff hunt and they needed to dig deep a few times to get it.  I thought that they would destroy Buffalo this week, because in the last year they have been able to put away teams they should...but not in this one.  I kept thinking of the game against the Jags this year that they won 32-3, and really believed it would be a game like that.  It wasn't however.  The Jets did do exactly what I predicted they would need to for a victory however.  They went back to using the Mark Sanchez safety blanket from last year: Dustin Keller.  The first two passes of the game were intended for Keller.  You could tell Sanchez wanted to get back to that game plan.  After the Jets fell behind 7-0, Sanchez found Keller in the endzone for the Jets first score of the game.  The game was tied 14-14 at halftime, and after the Bills punted in the first drive of the second half, Sanchez and the Jets took the field.  The Jets ran the ball the first four plays, before Sanchez hit Keller for a 22 yard completion.  Two plays later, he connected with Keller again for an 18 yard touchdown.  The Jets would go on to lose the lead and fall behind 28-24.  The Jets final drive started with under six minutes remaining in the game.  They converted a 3rd and 8 to keep the drive going and then had to convert a 3rd and 11 at the Bills 36 yard line.  Sanchez connected with Burress for 18 yards before ending the drive in the endzone on a 16 yard touchdown to Santonio Holmes with 61 seconds left.  The defense allowed the Bills to drive to the 27 yard line.  A three yard pass brought them to the 24 yard line, where they had three chances and 15 seconds to win the game.  After blown coverage and a bad throw to a wide open receiver in the endzone, the Jets were able to hold on to win in game they needed.  This game was not pretty, but it might propel them to another streak to end the season.  They are currently in 8th place in the AFC standings, and have very winnable games to end the season (@Wash,KC,@Philly,Giants,@Miami).  If this team believes they are a playoff team, then they must win every game, seeing as their only challenge should be the Giants in a split Meadowlands.
Jets (-9.5) Loss

Vikings vs. Falcons
Atlanta handled a Peterson-less Vikings team at home fairly easily 24-14.  Matt Ryan threw for 262 yards, 3 TDs and 0 picks.  Roddy White caught 10 passes for 120 yards and a touchdown.  Tony Gonzalez also had a big game, 9 for 69 yards.  Atlanta currently holds the last playoff spot in the NFC.  They are a half game behind New Orleans for the NFC South.  They lost to the Saints the first time they played this year 26-23, after going for a fourth down in their half of the field.  They meet again in week 16.
Falcons (-9.5) Win

Browns at Bengals
The Bengals had to rally from 20-10 down late in the 3rd quarter to pull this one out, 23-20.  Far too close of a game after losing by only a touchdown against Pittsburgh and Baltimore back to back on the road.   A.J. Green returned with a solid game, 3 catches for 110 yards and Cedric Benson had a nice day rushing, 21 attempts for 106 and a touchdown.  Just enough for the Bengals to win, but not to cover. 
Bengals (-7) Loss

Bucs vs. Titans
This game was tied 10-10 at halftime.  The Bucs had the lead going into the 4th quarter, but Tennessee scored 13 unanswered points to win the game.  Tampa Bay was only 2 for 10 on 3rd downs.  Tampa utilized Blount in the passing game early, with 3 catches for 56 yards.  However, after losing a fumble, he wasn't thrown to again.  If he is lucky he catches one a game, so three was a lot for him.  He did have a solid game, adding 103 yards on 20 touches in the rushing game, but it wasn't enough to hold on in the 4th quarter, as Chris Johnson had a huge game.  In what has been a complete bust of a season for Johnson, he broke out, 23 carries for 190 yards.  Considering Hasselback'sBucs continue to slide, losing 5 in a row, while Tennessee continues to stay in contention for a wild card spot or the division, should Houston falter down the stretch. 
Bucs (+3) Loss

Panthers vs. Colts
Cam Newton claimed his first road win against a winless Colts team.  When the Panthers had a 45 yard field goal blocked at the end of the first half, I felt it might turn into another case of the Panthers giving away a game they should win.  The Panthers came out and stopped the Colts on the first play of the second half, and Newton led them down field in a drive that ended with a DeAngelo Williams 25 yard TD run.  Carolina never looked back and they held on for the 27-19 win. 
Panthers (-3.5) Win

Cardinals vs. Rams
In a battle of bad teams, the Cardinals used a 17 point 3rd quarter to beat the Rams 23-20.  I keep believing that Bradford will turn it around, but I think it is evident that this is not his year.  He did not have a terrible game, but he could not get the win in this one.  He went 17/31 with 203 yards and a TD.  Bradford did not have much help from Steven Jackson in the running game today.  Jackson carried 17 times for 64 yards.  On the other side of the ball, Beanie Wells broke out for 228 yards and a TD.  He had a 71 yard run where he was tripped up 11 yards short of the endzone.  It was a good day for Wells, another bad day for Skelton, 114 yards and 2 picks, but the Cardinals won behind Beanie's huge day.
Rams (-2.5) Loss

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Patriots vs. Eagles
The Patriots fell behind early before coming back to blow out the Eagles 38-20.  Vince Young (26/48, 400 yards) started the game with a 22 yard completion, followed by a 58 yard strike to Riley Cooper.  McCoy would run it in for the TD.  Young started the next drive much like the first one, with a deep pass of 44 yards, but the Eagles would settle for a field goal on that drive, and this seemed to slow them down and allow for Brady and the Law Firm to get it going.  They would score a TD behind Green-Ellis, force the Eagles to punt, and then Brady did his thing again.  A 63 yard pass and catch for Branch to the 1 yard line, followed by a 1 yard TD by BGE, and the rout was beginning.  When Young began the next drive with an interception, it was all but over.  Brady found Welker for a 41 yard TD two drives later.   Brady went 24/34, for 361 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs.  Welker (8/115, 2 TDs) and Branch (6/125) looked great in this one, as Gronkowski was held in check (4/59, 1 TD).  Hernandez had more catches and was targeted more by Brady (6/62) in this one.  The Patriots are in first in the AFC East and are currently in second overall in the AFC.   
Eagles (+3.5) Loss

Texans vs. Jaguars
Houston is still atop the AFC standings after beating the Jags.  In a terrible turn of events however, they are not only without Schaub, but now without Leinart who broke his collarbone, and is potentially done for the season.  The QB duties now fall on North Carolina alum, T.J Yates.  Leinart was 10 for 13 for 57 yards and a TD before leaving the game.  Yates entered going 8 for 15 for 70 yards.  This week should be interesting, as we watch to see if Yates will be joined by a veteran free agent in practice or if the Texans trust the rookie to lead them into the playoffs.  They might let Yates stay behind center because of the amount of talent they have at running back, and the weapon that Andre Johnson is downfield.  If Yates can air it out, he might connect with Johnson for some big plays, although Johnson was held to only 2 catches for 22 yards in his return.  It still might be a good idea to bring in someone for insurance to install more fear in defenses against their passing game.  Foster only went 22 for 65 yards rushing today and Tate only had 5 carries, but racked up 26 yards.  It is going to be interesting going forward, but they got the job done in this one, and are one step closer to winning the division.
Texans (-6.5) Win

Bears vs. Raiders
Janikowski kicked the Raiders to the 25-20 win in this one.  He kicked two field goals in each of the first three quarters (40,47,42,19,37,44), and Michael Bush sealed the game with a 3 yard TD run in the 4th. Palmer threw for 301 yards with one interception.  Matt Forte had a subpar game, only getting 12 carries for 59 yards and 6 receptions for 25.  Marion Barber saw 10 carries for 63 yards.  Forte was not able to put up huge numbers because of the split with Barber.  Hanie, Cutler's replacement, went 18/36 for 254 yards, 2 TDs and 3 INTs.  He also ran 5 times for 50 yards.  It was not a terrible game, and with another week of practice, I expect the Bears to continue to keep games close. Oakland has to keep the foot on the gas, with Tebow only one game behind them for the AFC West title.
Raiders (-3) Win

Redskins vs. Seahawks
Washington put up 16 points in the 4th quarter to come back and beat Seattle 23-17.  I felt that Grossman would air it out in this one, and he did, completing 26 of 35 passes for 314 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 picks.  Helu had a great game in the backfield as well, 23 carries for 108 yards and a TD.  For Seattle, Lynch continued a 4 game stretch in which he has averaged almost 111 rushing yards a game.  It was not enough in this one though as the Redskins came back for the win.
Redskins (+3) Win

Broncos vs. Chargers
TEBOW TIME.  Read my article about Tebow to see how I feel about this guy.  In short, he is awesome.  Just keeps impressing everyone and pushing towards the playoffs.  He is 5-1 this year now as a starter with a 16-13 win in San Diego.  He started the game 0 for 4, before going 9 for his next 14.  He led the Broncos to another 4th quarter comeback, and an overtime victory.  He set a record for most QB rushes by a QB since 1970 with 22.  The Broncos were down 10-0 before Tebow connected with Decker for an 18 yard TD in the 2nd quarter.  In the 4th quarter, while trailing 13-10, with just over 5 minutes left (again), it was Tebow time.  Looking at a 3rd and 11 on their own 25, he hit Decker for a 39 yard gain.  Two plays later, he would hit Rosario for 23 yards and take the ball to the San Diego 12 yard line.  They would get a field goal to tie the game, and hold off San Diego to get to overtime.  The Tebows, I mean Broncos, won the toss, and went three and out.  But not before a tough decision by John Fox.  The Broncos had a 4th and 1 on the 45, and they elected to punt it, instead of letting Tebow go for a yard.  It turned out to be a good call, as they forced the Chargers to go three and out.  After Tebow looked to have enough for a first down on a 3rd and 11 pass, replay would overturn it, and once again force the punt on 4th and 1.  The Chargers drove down field, and on a 3rd and 6, lost four yards, to set up a 53 yard attempt by Novak.  The attempt was blocked, but the Broncos called a timeout, therefore giving San Diego another chance.  The kick went wide right, as Tebow was on the sidelines, head down, on one knee.  Tebow took over and ran for 12 yards, followed by a 4 yard run.  This opened up a running lane in the middle for McGahee (23/117) and he gained 24 yards.  Tebow would take the next snap and center it for a game winning 37 yard field goal by Prater with 29 seconds left in overtime.  Another game, another comeback, and another thrilling win for Tim Tebow.
Broncos (+6) Win


Steelers vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs would not go away in this one, as it came down to the final seconds of this one.  The Steelers would win 13-9, but the Chiefs had the ball with under one minute left in the game, and Palko was intercepted to end it.  The Steelers sit in 5th place in the AFC playoff standings, but can win the division should they win one more than the Ravens down the stretch. 
Steelers (-10.5) Loss


My Sunday record: 6-6
Thursday and Monday record: 0-4
Week 12: 6-10

The Rest of Week 12 Picks

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Week 12

Vikings vs. Falcons
Vikes playing in Atlanta, where Atlanta never loses.  They are without Adrian Peterson, and without him, they won’t have a chance here.  I think winning by 10 is not too much to ask here.
Falcons (-9.5) Win

Browns at Bengals
The Bengals return home after coming a TD short against Pittsburgh and in Baltimore.  Browns barely hung on again Jacksonville at home last week.  I expect the Bengals to deal with the browns easily in this game.
Bengals (-7) Loss

Bucs vs. Titans
Titans are giving 3 in this one, and I think if the Bucs recover from their loss last week at the Packers, then I think they win this game.  They fought against the Packers so it going to be interesting to see if they still have it in them this week.
Bucs (+3) Loss

Panthers vs. Colts
Newton puts on a show every week, but the defense gets beaten up every game.  The Colts have nothing to defend though, and I see Newton getting his first road win in this one.
Panthers (-3.5) Win

Cardinals vs. Rams
Both teams can’t put it together this year, but im going to go with the better QB in this one.  Although he has had a terrible season, I still like Bradford and think he can pull this one out at home.  Kolb is once again out for the Cardinals so Skelton will start, and I don’t think he will be able to win this game for the Cardinals.
Rams (-2.5) Loss

Bills vs. Jets
Jets need a win if they want to have a chance for the playoffs.  Simply put, if they can not beat a Bills team that can’t buy a win and that lost their best player, then they don’t deserve to make the playoffs.  I look for Sanchez to fall back on his favorite target from last year, Dustin Keller.  If he finds the guy he is comfortable with again, then he will be bale to relax and get the big win here.  I think the Jets get it done this week and take advantage of a wounded Bills team.
Jets (-9.5) Loss

Texans vs. Jaguars
Jacksonville’s offense is horrendous.  Even with Matt Leinart starting at QB for Houston, I think they will win this game.  They might get over 100 rushing yards from both Tate and Foster in this one, and if Leinart can just get the ball out, then Andre Johnson will have a great game in his return this weekend.
Texans (-6.5) Win

Bears vs. Raiders
Chicago is without Cutler and will rely heavily on Forte.  I think Forte needs to have a huge game, but he is only averaging 3.18 yards per carry in the last 2 weeks.  Chicago needs to hope that he is not tiring out, because with Caleb Hanie behind center replacing Cutler, it is going to be a run first offense, but not sure if its enough in Oakland against Palmer who is 2-1 as their starter.  McFadden is still out, but Bush is filling in great and I think they will win this one.
Raiders (-3) Win

Redskins vs. Seahawks
Washington gets Moss back this weekend and are coming off an OT loss to Dallas at home.  They can air it out with Grossman starting again but Seattle is a tough place to get a win.  I think it will be a close game, and I will take the Redskins getting 3.
Redskins (+3) Win

Patriots vs. Eagles
Patriots should win this game, but I wonder if the huge win in New York sparks the Eagles.  I think they stick close to the Patriots in this game if they play inspired.  If they fall behind early, then I think they get blown out.
Eagles (+3.5) Loss

Broncos vs. Chargers
Each week the Chargers push Norv Turner closer and closer to the exit door.  Rivers leads the league in interceptions and the Broncos have been playing good defense as of late.  Plus, the Broncos have Tebow, so therefore I am not thinking about this game much, instead, I am just taking Tebow.  I mean the Broncos.
Broncos (+6) Win

Steelers vs. Chiefs
Pittsburgh has had a week of rest to get Big Bens thumb healthy.  They face a reeling Kansas City team, and will take this game.
Steelers (-10.5) Win

Giants vs. Saints
Giants usually play close games on the road and the Saints tend to let good offenses keep games close.  The Giants are unpredictable and with them getting 7.5 points, I feel fairly confident in them.  I don't think it's too much of a stretch to think they could win this game.  I think both teams will utilize their tight ends a lot in this one.  Ballard seems to be impressing people with his play this year for the Giants, and Graham is one of the best tight ends in football.  Expect both quarterback to use them heavily in this game. 
Giants (+7.5) Loss