Friday, December 23, 2011

Week 16 Preview and Picks
Game of the Week

Giants vs
     The deciding factor in this game is if the Jets offensive line can protect against Sanchez from a pounding by the Giants defense.  For the Jets to win, their offensive line needs to step up.  The Jets have to protect Sanchez coming off a game against the Eagles when he was sacked 4 times.  The Giants have 37 sacks this season on opposing QBs and the Jets have allowed 33 sacks.  Jason Pierre-Paul alone has 13.5 sacks.  If Sanchez has time to make plays, then they can win this game.  In the Jets victories this year, Sanchez has 16 TDs and 6 INTs.  In their losses: 7 and 7.  The Giants have given up the 29th most passing yards per game this year (258).  It won't fall completely on him however as Greene continues to run the ball well for the Jets.  Greene has been playing great since his awful first four games, especially in the last four weeks.  In the eight Jet wins this year, he has 5 TDs and 632 yards.  In their six losses, he has 1 TD and only 309 yards.  Add a little bit of LT and I think the Jets will be able to pile up yards against the Giants.
    On paper the Giants offense is more dynamic, with the backfield of Bradshaw and Jacobs, the phenomenal year Manning is having, and the three above average receivers, it will be a matter of if they can exploit the Jets defense.  As game time approaches however, it looks Manningham will not be playing. The Jets have the 7th best pass defense, allowing 205 yards per game.  The Giants have the 3rd best pass offense, throwing for 299 yards per game.  The Jets will need to stay with their receivers and defend the pass and force the Giants to run more.  The Giants might be able to exploit the Jets rush defense if Bradshaw can be elusive and quick.  Jacobs might not have much success in this one, but Bradshaw might be able to break off a big run.
     This game will decide a lot in the NFL.  There are so many scenarios that can happen, pending the outcome of this game.  If the Giants win this week and next, they make the playoffs.  If the Jets win out, they make the playoffs.  Both teams can to lose this game and still have a chance, but they will need help to stay in the playoff hunt.  If the Giants lose, they will still have a chance at the division, if the Cowboys lose to the Eagles this week, the Eagles lose next week, and the Giants take care of the Cowboys next week.  If the Giants lose this week and win next week, and the Eagles win this week and next week, then the Eagles will win the division.  The Jets scenario might get even messier, with the Bengals, Titans, Oakland, and San Diego all still in the race.  It is a mess for the playoffs, but this game will help solve the playoff puzzle.
     I think when all is said and done, the Jets will win this game.  It is going to be close but the Jets have what it takes to limit the damage from Manning.  I think the Jets rushing attack will prove to be the difference, and the Jets will solidify their playoff hopes this Christmas Eve.
Jets (-3)

Broncos vs. Bills
I am looking for Tebow to go to Buffalo and win this game.  He threw the ball well against the Patriots and actually showed a lot more conventional quarterback skill.  He will be able to throw against Buffalo, but with snow in the forecast, he might have to hand if off even more.  The Broncos lead the league in rushing with 163 yards per game, and Buffalo has given up the 3rd most yards, 139.5, on the ground this season.  A great matchup for the Broncos here and a chance for them to be one game away from winning the AFC West.  If they win here, then they return home to play the Chiefs on New Years Day.
Broncos (-3)

Jaguars vs. Titans
The Titans are fighting for a playoff spot still and the Jaguars are just waiting for the season to be over.  Titans are tough at home and I think they pull it off easily to stay alive.
Titans (-7.5)

Cardinals vs. Bengals
The Bengals are still alive in the AFC playoff picture, but the Cardinals can put up a fight.  I think the Cardinals keep it close in this one.
Cardinals (+6)

Dolphins vs. Patriots
The Patriots are playing for playoff positioning at this point.  The Dolphins have been winning or keeping it close as of late, and will again in Foxboro.
Dolphins (+10)

Browns vs. Ravens
The Ravens are trying to lock up the division after coming off a loss against the Chargers.  I think they win, but not in a blowout.
Browns (+13)

Vikings vs. Redskins
The Vikings are reeling, and the Redskins have some fight left in them after their blowout against the Giants last week.  Grossman and Moss have been working nicely together since Moss came back from injury, look for more of the same here.
Redskins (-6.5)

Raiders vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs might have something gong with a new coach and Orton behind center.  I don't think it will be a very high scoring game for either side, but I like the Chiefs in this one.  The Raiders are not out of it yet but they have to have a lot go right, and I don't think they'll win this one.
Chiefs (-2)

Bucs vs. Panthers
Look for Newton to have a good game and beat the Bucs at home.
Panthers (-7.5)

Rams vs. Steelers
Steelers are trying to rebound after losing in San Fran last week.  Both teams are banged up so this should be close.
Rams (+13)

Chargers vs. Lions
The Lions are coming off an exciting win and both teams still have playoff hopes.  I think this one is decided by a couple points, the team with the last possession wins this game.
Lions (-1.5)

49ers vs. Seahawks
The Seahawks are hot right now and the 49ers have not allowed a rushing TD.  Should be interesting against a red hot Lynch.  I think he breaks through against them at home.
Seahawks (+2)

Eagles vs. Cowboys 
I think the Eagles beat the Cowboys in Dallas, and with a Giants loss, things stay interesting in the NFC East.
Eagles (+3)

Bears vs. Packers
The Packers will rebound from their first loss last week.  They should rout the Bears at home on Christmas night.
Packers (-12)

Falcons vs. Saints

The Saints are home but the Falcons usually play them tough.  This one will be close and I will take the Falcons to stay close in this one.
Falcons (+7)


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