Thursday, December 22, 2011

Giants vs. Jets Preview and Pick

Game of the Week

Giants vs. Jets

The deciding factor in this game is if the Jets offensive line can protect against Sanchez from a pounding by the Giants defense.  For the Jets to win, their offensive line needs to step up.  The Jets have to protect Sanchez coming off a game against the Eagles when he was sacked 4 times.  The Giants have 37 sacks this season on opposing QBs and the Jets have allowed 33 sacks.  Jason Pierre-Paul has 13.5 sacks and Osi has 7, so the Jets have to stop these two.  If Sanchez has time to make plays, then they can win this game.  In the Jets victories this year, Sanchez has 16 TDs and 6 INTs.  In their losses: 7 and 7.  The Giants have given up the 29th most passing yards per game this year (258).  It won't fall completely on him however as Greene continues to run the ball well for the Jets.  Greene has been playing great since his awful first four games, especially in the last four weeks.  In the eight Jet wins this year, he has 5 TDs and 632 yards.  In their six losses, he has 1 TD and only 309 yards.  Add a little bit of LT and the Jets will be able to pile up yards against the Giants.

On paper the Giants offense is more dynamic, with the backfield of Bradshaw and Jacobs, the phenomenal year Manning is having, and the three above average receivers, it will be a matter of if they can exploit the Jets defense.  The Jets have the 7th best pass defense, allowing 205 yards per game.  The Giants have the 3rd best pass offense, throwing for 299 yards per game.  The Jets will need to stay with their receivers and defend the pass and force the Giants to run more.  The Giants might be able to exploit the Jets rush defense if Bradshaw can be elusive and quick.  Jacobs might not have much success in this one, but Bradshaw might be able to break off a big run.

This game will decide a lot in the NFL.  There are so many scenarios that can happen, pending the outcome of this game.  If the Giants win this week and next, they make the playoffs.  If the Jets win out, they make the playoffs.  Both teams can to lose this game and still have a chance, but they will need help to stay in the playoff hunt.  If the Giants lose, they will still have a chance at the division, if the Cowboys lose to the Eagles this week, the Eagles lose next week, and the Giants take care of the Cowboys next week.  If the Giants lose this week and win next week, and the Eagles win this week and next week, then the Eagles will win the division.  The Jets scenario might get even messier, with the Bengals, Titans, Oakland, and San Diego all still in the race.  It is a mess for the playoffs, but this game will help solve the playoff puzzle.

I think when all is said and done, the Jets will win this game.  It is going to be close but the Jets have what it takes to limit the damage from Manning.  I think the Jets rushing attack will prove to be the difference, and the Jets will solidify their playoff hopes this Christmas Eve.
Jets (-3)

Check back for the rest of my week 16 picks

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