Thursday, November 17, 2011

Week 11 Preview and Picks

Each week I will make picks for every NFL game.  Be sure to check before Thursday Night Football and before kickoff on Sundays.

 WEEK 11
Thursday Night Football

Jets vs. Broncos    
I've toiled over this game for intrigues me in so many ways.  The Jets are coming off a tough loss at home and are looking for redemption.  But it is Tim Tebow they are up against.  All Tebow knows is how to win football games...after all, he did teach Charlie Sheen everything he knows about "WINNING".  If the Jets start this game off strong, get an early lead with a TD or two, then it will force Tebow to throw more which could lead to some turnovers.  I wouldn't be surprised by defensive TD from the Jets as well in this one.  Denver's offense is is all based on the option play.  The option has been opening up the field for Tebow and McGahee...but McGahee is hobbled by a bad hamstring and can not be expected to be 100% against a physical Jets defense.  Rex Ryan preaches defense and is very familiar with defending the option.  In his 1999 book, Coaching Football's 46 Defense, he dedicated a 20 page section to the option play itself. All this adds up to me taking the Jets to cover.
Jets (-6)

Titans vs. Falcons
Questionable Julio Jones does not look good for the Falcons, but I expect Roddy White to have a huge second half of the season, and without Jones, this gives him the opportunity.  Not to mention, Tony Gonzalez still looks great.  Leave out their losses against New Orleans, Atlanta is 19-2 in their last 21 games at home. 
Falcons (-5.5

vs. Dolphins
Buffalo has been struggling and Miami is starting to find their groove.  Buffalo has to respond after a beating in Dallas, and with their season still fully salvageable, I find it unlikely that they lose their third in a row.  Miami has been streaking, but I think desperation time for Buffalo will mean a heavy dose of Fred Jackson and a win for Buffalo.
Bills (+2)

Bengals vs. Ravens
Bengals were tested last week and probably would have won if A.J Green didn’t get hurt in the first quarter. Still, only lost by a TD against Pittsburgh.  No A.J in this one, but also no Ray Lewis for the Ravens, maybe allowing some lanes to open up here.  I don't like Flacco in this game, and if they could pressure him and limit Rice, then I can see an upset.
Bengals (+7

Jaguars vs. Browns
Toss up here.  I’ll take the Browns at home.
Browns (-1.5)

Raiders vs. Vikings
Minnesota at home against a Raiders team that does not have McFadden.  But Michael Bush has been filling in nicely, and I think Palmer will be able to exploit the Vikes secondary.
Raiders (+1)

Panthers vs. Lions
I believe in Cam Newton, as for the rest of the team…not so much.  But of their 7 losses, 5 have been by 7 points of fewer, including a couple games they should have won.  The team beside Cam is a 7 loss team, but Cam does so much by himself, that they stay in almost every game.  After Cams first blowout loss last week, I expect a rebound and a close game against a struggling Detroit team.  Cams first road win doesn’t seem out of the question here either.
Panthers (+7)

Buccaneers vs. Packers
Packers at home against a warm weather team.  As hot as the Pack are, that’s how cold the Bucs have been.  I’m taking the Packers to win this game in a blowout.
Packers (-14)

Cowboys vs. Redskins
Dallas is red hot and has been putting up a lot of points lately.  Washington is reeling and although I don’t think it will be easy, Dallas is going to win this game. 
Dallas (-7)

Cardinals vs. 49ers
Cardinals keep things close, but got blown out earlier this year at home against the 49ers.  They have been playing nicely, even without Kolb, as Skelton has been filling in nicely.  I think they will keep it within 10 in San Fran.  Plus, San Fran is due for a bad game. 
Cardinals (+10)

Seahawks vs. Rams
St. Louis at home, hoping Bradford can turn it around and they can pull this one out.
Rams (-3)

Chargers vs. Bears
The Chargers are sinking….fast.  Two teams going in complete opposite directions.  I’ll take Cutler and the Bears.
Bears (-4.5)

Eagles vs. Giants
Giants looking to rebound after losing on the West Coast to the 49ers.  Facing an Eagles team that is collapsing.  No Vick or Maclin means that the Giants have a great opportunity to get an easier win in a division game.  Although it never seems easy against Philly, I think they take this one and cover. Giants (-5.5)

Chiefs vs. Patriots
I’ve never felt confident in the chiefs offense anyways, and with Cassel out, it seems like a pretty lopsided match-up on a cold night in Foxboro. 
Patriots (-14.5)

No comments: