Week 16 Review

Game of the Week

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Giants vs. Jets
More on this game later in the week, but key things:  Giants and Dallas winner next week wins the division and Jets sit in 9th now in the AFC standings.  The need a lot of help with one week left.  A fumble to a safety, and a pass interference on Plaxico decided this game. 
Jets (-3) Loss

Dolphins vs. Patriots
Pats rally and come all the way back.  Clinch a first round bye.
Dolphins (+10) Win

Browns vs. Ravens
Baltimore held on to win and fight for a first round bye and the division.
Browns (+13) Win

Vikings vs. Redskins 
Vikings surprise the Redskins for their third win in this one.
Redskins (-6.5) Loss

Raiders vs. Chiefs
Chiefs should have won this, but went to OT and lost.  Now the Raiders have a chance to lose the division, but still make the playoffs next week if things play out correctly. 
Chiefs (-2) Loss

Bucs vs. Panthers
Cam Newton sets the all time pass record in this one and adds a 49 yard TD run.  He is turning this team around and they have a bright future.
Panthers (-7.5) Win

Rams vs. Steelers
Steelers are trying to keep up with the Ravens for the division and a first round bye in the AFC.   
Rams (+13) Loss

Eagles vs. Cowboys
Cowboys had nothing to play for, but the Eagles played with a lot of heart and handled them.  Comes down to next week in New Jersey for the Cowboys.
Eagles (+3) Win

Chargers vs. Lions 
Lions clinch a playoff birth for the first time in 13 years and take care of Rivers.
Lions (-1.5) Win

49ers vs. Seahawks
49ers come back late and win on a field goal in Seattle.
Seahawks (+2) Push

Broncos vs. Bills
Blowout here, Bills defense steps up as Tebow doesn't protect the ball.  Denver still control their own fate next week.  A win against KC, and they're in.  
Broncos (-3) Loss

Jaguars vs. Titans
Titans win at home to help their playoff hopes.  Currently in 8th place in the AFC.  Don't cover though.
Titans (-7.5) Loss

Cardinals vs. Bengals 
Cardinals don't complete the comeback, and lose to the Bengals.  Bengals now claim the 6th spot as of now and are in the playoffs.
Cardinals (+6) Push


Bears vs. Packers
The Packers dominated again and clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Packers (-12) Win

MNF
Falcons vs. Saints
Brees- the new all time single season passing leader.  Saints dominate and win 45-16.

TNF -  http://nargonsports.blogspot.com/2011/12/thursday-night-football-week-16_21.html

Happy Holidays!!!

Week 16 Preview and Picks

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Game of the Week

Giants vs. Jets

     The deciding factor in this game is if the Jets offensive line can protect against Sanchez from a pounding by the Giants defense.  For the Jets to win, their offensive line needs to step up.  The Jets have to protect Sanchez coming off a game against the Eagles when he was sacked 4 times.  The Giants have 37 sacks this season on opposing QBs and the Jets have allowed 33 sacks.  Jason Pierre-Paul alone has 13.5 sacks.  If Sanchez has time to make plays, then they can win this game.  In the Jets victories this year, Sanchez has 16 TDs and 6 INTs.  In their losses: 7 and 7.  The Giants have given up the 29th most passing yards per game this year (258).  It won't fall completely on him however as Greene continues to run the ball well for the Jets.  Greene has been playing great since his awful first four games, especially in the last four weeks.  In the eight Jet wins this year, he has 5 TDs and 632 yards.  In their six losses, he has 1 TD and only 309 yards.  Add a little bit of LT and I think the Jets will be able to pile up yards against the Giants.
    On paper the Giants offense is more dynamic, with the backfield of Bradshaw and Jacobs, the phenomenal year Manning is having, and the three above average receivers, it will be a matter of if they can exploit the Jets defense.  As game time approaches however, it looks Manningham will not be playing. The Jets have the 7th best pass defense, allowing 205 yards per game.  The Giants have the 3rd best pass offense, throwing for 299 yards per game.  The Jets will need to stay with their receivers and defend the pass and force the Giants to run more.  The Giants might be able to exploit the Jets rush defense if Bradshaw can be elusive and quick.  Jacobs might not have much success in this one, but Bradshaw might be able to break off a big run.
     This game will decide a lot in the NFL.  There are so many scenarios that can happen, pending the outcome of this game.  If the Giants win this week and next, they make the playoffs.  If the Jets win out, they make the playoffs.  Both teams can to lose this game and still have a chance, but they will need help to stay in the playoff hunt.  If the Giants lose, they will still have a chance at the division, if the Cowboys lose to the Eagles this week, the Eagles lose next week, and the Giants take care of the Cowboys next week.  If the Giants lose this week and win next week, and the Eagles win this week and next week, then the Eagles will win the division.  The Jets scenario might get even messier, with the Bengals, Titans, Oakland, and San Diego all still in the race.  It is a mess for the playoffs, but this game will help solve the playoff puzzle.
     I think when all is said and done, the Jets will win this game.  It is going to be close but the Jets have what it takes to limit the damage from Manning.  I think the Jets rushing attack will prove to be the difference, and the Jets will solidify their playoff hopes this Christmas Eve.
Jets (-3)

Broncos vs. Bills
I am looking for Tebow to go to Buffalo and win this game.  He threw the ball well against the Patriots and actually showed a lot more conventional quarterback skill.  He will be able to throw against Buffalo, but with snow in the forecast, he might have to hand if off even more.  The Broncos lead the league in rushing with 163 yards per game, and Buffalo has given up the 3rd most yards, 139.5, on the ground this season.  A great matchup for the Broncos here and a chance for them to be one game away from winning the AFC West.  If they win here, then they return home to play the Chiefs on New Years Day.
Broncos (-3)

Jaguars vs. Titans
The Titans are fighting for a playoff spot still and the Jaguars are just waiting for the season to be over.  Titans are tough at home and I think they pull it off easily to stay alive.
Titans (-7.5)

Cardinals vs. Bengals
The Bengals are still alive in the AFC playoff picture, but the Cardinals can put up a fight.  I think the Cardinals keep it close in this one.
Cardinals (+6)

Dolphins vs. Patriots
The Patriots are playing for playoff positioning at this point.  The Dolphins have been winning or keeping it close as of late, and will again in Foxboro.
Dolphins (+10)

Browns vs. Ravens
The Ravens are trying to lock up the division after coming off a loss against the Chargers.  I think they win, but not in a blowout.
Browns (+13)

Vikings vs. Redskins
The Vikings are reeling, and the Redskins have some fight left in them after their blowout against the Giants last week.  Grossman and Moss have been working nicely together since Moss came back from injury, look for more of the same here.
Redskins (-6.5)

Raiders vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs might have something gong with a new coach and Orton behind center.  I don't think it will be a very high scoring game for either side, but I like the Chiefs in this one.  The Raiders are not out of it yet but they have to have a lot go right, and I don't think they'll win this one.
Chiefs (-2)

Bucs vs. Panthers
Look for Newton to have a good game and beat the Bucs at home.
Panthers (-7.5)

Rams vs. Steelers
Steelers are trying to rebound after losing in San Fran last week.  Both teams are banged up so this should be close.
Rams (+13)

Chargers vs. Lions
The Lions are coming off an exciting win and both teams still have playoff hopes.  I think this one is decided by a couple points, the team with the last possession wins this game.
Lions (-1.5)

49ers vs. Seahawks
The Seahawks are hot right now and the 49ers have not allowed a rushing TD.  Should be interesting against a red hot Lynch.  I think he breaks through against them at home.
Seahawks (+2)

Eagles vs. Cowboys 
I think the Eagles beat the Cowboys in Dallas, and with a Giants loss, things stay interesting in the NFC East.
Eagles (+3)

Bears vs. Packers
The Packers will rebound from their first loss last week.  They should rout the Bears at home on Christmas night.
Packers (-12)

MNF
Falcons vs. Saints
The Saints are home but the Falcons usually play them tough.  This one will be close and I will take the Falcons to stay close in this one.
Falcons (+7)


TNF -  http://nargonsports.blogspot.com/2011/12/thursday-night-football-week-16_21.html

Giants vs. Jets Preview and Pick

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Game of the Week

Giants vs. Jets

The deciding factor in this game is if the Jets offensive line can protect against Sanchez from a pounding by the Giants defense.  For the Jets to win, their offensive line needs to step up.  The Jets have to protect Sanchez coming off a game against the Eagles when he was sacked 4 times.  The Giants have 37 sacks this season on opposing QBs and the Jets have allowed 33 sacks.  Jason Pierre-Paul has 13.5 sacks and Osi has 7, so the Jets have to stop these two.  If Sanchez has time to make plays, then they can win this game.  In the Jets victories this year, Sanchez has 16 TDs and 6 INTs.  In their losses: 7 and 7.  The Giants have given up the 29th most passing yards per game this year (258).  It won't fall completely on him however as Greene continues to run the ball well for the Jets.  Greene has been playing great since his awful first four games, especially in the last four weeks.  In the eight Jet wins this year, he has 5 TDs and 632 yards.  In their six losses, he has 1 TD and only 309 yards.  Add a little bit of LT and the Jets will be able to pile up yards against the Giants.

On paper the Giants offense is more dynamic, with the backfield of Bradshaw and Jacobs, the phenomenal year Manning is having, and the three above average receivers, it will be a matter of if they can exploit the Jets defense.  The Jets have the 7th best pass defense, allowing 205 yards per game.  The Giants have the 3rd best pass offense, throwing for 299 yards per game.  The Jets will need to stay with their receivers and defend the pass and force the Giants to run more.  The Giants might be able to exploit the Jets rush defense if Bradshaw can be elusive and quick.  Jacobs might not have much success in this one, but Bradshaw might be able to break off a big run.

This game will decide a lot in the NFL.  There are so many scenarios that can happen, pending the outcome of this game.  If the Giants win this week and next, they make the playoffs.  If the Jets win out, they make the playoffs.  Both teams can to lose this game and still have a chance, but they will need help to stay in the playoff hunt.  If the Giants lose, they will still have a chance at the division, if the Cowboys lose to the Eagles this week, the Eagles lose next week, and the Giants take care of the Cowboys next week.  If the Giants lose this week and win next week, and the Eagles win this week and next week, then the Eagles will win the division.  The Jets scenario might get even messier, with the Bengals, Titans, Oakland, and San Diego all still in the race.  It is a mess for the playoffs, but this game will help solve the playoff puzzle.

I think when all is said and done, the Jets will win this game.  It is going to be close but the Jets have what it takes to limit the damage from Manning.  I think the Jets rushing attack will prove to be the difference, and the Jets will solidify their playoff hopes this Christmas Eve.

Jets (-3)

Check back for the rest of my week 16 picks

Week 15 Review

Patriots vs. Broncos

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The Broncos held a 16-7 lead, before a calamity of turnovers.  They coughed up the ball and couldn't stop the Patriots on third down, leading to 27 unanswered points and a 34-16 lead.  The Patriots never looked back after that as they went on to win 41-23.  This is a minor setback for Tebow, but it showed a few things about Tebow.  He showed that he could throw in the beginning of the game when he had to, and that had been questioned coming into this game.  The Broncos were simply overwhelmed as this game continued, but it was a good check for them as they get ready for the playoffs.

Broncos (+7.5) Loss

Redskins vs. Giants
An embarrassing game for the Giants.  They are now in a position where they basically need to win the last two games to assure the playoffs.  They were never in this game against the Redskins, even after starting the game with a pick of Grossman.  The game was ugly from the beginning and the Redskins showed everyone that they do indeed have a defense that can click and stifle an offense.  The Giants need to rebound next week, in what will be a crazy atmosphere in New Jersey.  They take on the Jets at MetLife Stadium, in front of a crowd that will primariliy be Jets fans.  It will be a crazy game, and they way it looks now, will be a very tough game on both teams.
Giants (-7) Loss

Packers vs. Chiefs
Who saw this coming?  The Chiefs defeated the Packers in a shocking game.  The Packers had to think this game was going to be the easiest one left in the season, but they were stunned by the Chiefs in Kansas City.  Kansas City was led by Orton in his first start.  He threw for 299 yards going 23/31.  Rodgers just could not get anything going and their hopes for an undefeated season ended.  On Thanksgiving, I still thought they would not pull off the undefeated season, but they finally got me believing after the last two games.  And now this week, it ends.  Good win by the Chiefs in this one.
Packers (-12) Loss

Jets vs. Eagles

The Jets fell behind 28-0 in what looked like the rout in Baltimore earlier this season.  They were able to salvage 13 points at the end of the half to make it a 28-13 game, but the Eagles struck for another TD to start the second half and would continue to pile it on.  The Jets were helped by the Titans losing, but hurt by the Bengals winning.  They now must win the final two games if they want to make it to the playoffs.
Jets (+3) Loss

Saints vs. Vikings

Brees put up 5 TDs and 412 yards in this game.  The Saints blew out the Vikings, as they should have, and move to 11-3 this season.
Saints (-8) Win

Seahawks vs. Bears
Lynch did not put up a lot of yards, only 42, but he ran for 2 TDs.  The Seahawks had no problem in the second half putting away the lifeless Bears.  The Bears have no QB, and are slowly slipping out of the playoff picture.
Seahawks (+3.5) Win

Dolphins vs. Buffalo
Miami went to Buffalo in the snow and pulled off the victory.  Reggie Bush thought he was back at USC, running for over 200 yards.  They won 30-23, as Buffalo has now lost 7 in a row.

Buffalo (even) Loss

Panthers vs. Texans

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The first half was dominated by the Panthers, and unlike last week, they were able to maintain the lead and win this one.  Carolina jumped out to a 21-0 lead and carried it to halftime.  They would hold on to win, 28-13.  The Texans playoff position still looks good, but they will have to battle for a first round bye.  

Panthers (+6) Win

Titans vs. Colts
The Colts finally win a game, and do it against a Tennesse team that is battling for a playoff spot.  Donald Brown took control of the game, with 161 yards rushing and a TD.  The Colts finally fill the win column this season.
Titans (-7) Loss

Bengals vs. Rams
Cincy gave up a late TD to bring the score closer, but it was not a close second half. The Bengals controlled the second half, after trailing 6-3 at half time.  They relied heavily on their running game with Benson and Scott.  The Bengals remain in the playoff hunt after pulling off this win.

Bengals (-7) Push

Lions vs. Raiders

The Lions completed a 98 yard drive with two minutes left to take the 28-27 lead against Oakland.  The Lions remain in the hunt for the playoffs after this comeback win in Oakland.
Lions (-1.5) Loss

Browns vs. Cardinals

Seneca Wallace filled in nicely for McCoy in this one.  The Browns jumped out to a 10-0 lead before they surrendered a TD with 25 seconds left in the half.  Wallace found Little in the third for a 76 yard TD to make it 17-7.  The Cardinals came back however, and tied it at 17 to force the game into overtime, where they would go on to win on a field goal, 20-17.

Cardinals (-6.5) Loss

Ravens vs. Chargers

The Chargers dominated this one and are keep their playoff hopes alive.  The Ravens are not as good a team on the road as they are at home, and this trend continues.  They will now battle with the Steelers for the division in the final two weeks.  

Chargers (+3) Win

MNF- Steelers vs. 49ers

The Steelers were unable to play well with a hobbled Big Ben.  They now fall to 5th place in the AFC and miss their opportunity to claim the first seed.  The 49ers continue to roll and dominated in this game.  Both teams are headed to the playoffs, so this one was all about positioning for the playoffs.

Steelers (+3) Loss

TNF Jax vs. Atl - Win -  http://nargonsports.blogspot.com/2011/12/thursday-night-football-week-15.html 

Dal vs. TB - Win - http://nargonsports.blogspot.com/2011/12/saturday-night-football.html

Week 15 @ the Half

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Surprises all around the NFL.  The unbeaten Packers are losing to the Chiefs 6-0.  We know they have a good defense, but really?  Packers need to pick it up here.  The Giants are behind 17-3 against the Redskins, even with a couple Grossman picks.  Carolina and Cam are beating up the Texans, lets see if they can hold onto the big halftime lead this week.  The rest of the games right now are real close.  Cincy trails the Rams 6-3 at halftime.  New Orleans is beating the Vikings 21-13 as they scored a TD with under 2 minutes left in the half.  Miami is beating the reeling Bills.  Chicago scored a late TD to take the lead on Seattle.  The Titans are barely beating the Colts at the half.

Week 15 Preview and Picks

Patriots vs. Broncos

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The Broncos are looking to continue their current win streak. They will go for their seventh straight against the Pats in Denver.  After a shootout in Minnesota, they returned to their typical ways of playing last Sunday.  They were trailing all game, Tebow was only 3-16 before the fourth quarter, and had a 13.5 QB rating.  It looked like he might actually lose.  Until he went on a typical fourth quarter Tebow tear.  He took advantage of a lazy Bears defense and picked them apart.  He led receivers with his throws and looked like he was in control of the game.  He completed 13 of 17 passes in the fourth quarter and overtime for 130 yards and a TD.  Will we see it again this week?  If Tebow wants to pull off another victory he is going to have to take advantage of the wounded and weak Patriots defense.  He will have to make throws that he usually makes in the fourth quarter, all game long.  If he can execute and mix in McGahee and his own running game, then this has all the makings of another huge win for Tebow and the Broncos.  The Broncos are going to have to bring their A game on defense as well.  They have been playing at a very high level, but they are going to have to step it up even more.  They need to keep close from the beginning and not let Brady pull too far ahead.  They will need to be creative in the way they attack the Patriots and Brady.  It is impossible to pick against Tebow right now.  He is bringing out the best in his teammates, and making them believe that they can beat just about anyone.  For what it's worth, the Patriots have lose their last three games in Denver.  I like the Broncos to stun the Pats in Denver.  In terms of the spread on this one, the Pats are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 road games, and the Broncos are 1-4-1 against the spread in their last 6 home games.  I think the Broncos are an excellent option getting 7 points in this matchup.
Broncos (+7.5)

Redskins vs. Giants
The Giants are now on top of the division and will win it if they win out.  They have been piling up the offensive numbers, but their defense, much like Dallas, has been questionable.  The Redskins have a pretty good defense, so it might be a challenge for the Giants to break through. They have the big play capability however, and that should be enough against the Skins.  The Giants are back to using Jacobs and Bradshaw.  On the season, they both have 130 carries, Bradshaw has 490 yards and 5 TDs, and Jacobs has 480 yards and 7 TDs.  Most the season it has been one or the other playing.  They are at their best when Bradshaw is the main back and Jacobs is complimenting him.  Look for a return to that type of run game.  The Giants need to use the run game a bit, even though it will be tempting to just air it out all day to Cruz and Nicks.  They should win this game by a TD at least.  If they don't win by at least a TD, then the Redskins will have probably upset the Giants at home.
Giants (-7)

Packers vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs will be making a change at QB if Orton is healthy enough to go.  It won't make a difference though.  The Packers can't be stopped right now and are simply embarrassing teams.  Even with the loss of Jennings, they are going to destroy KC.  Finley is going to be used as the number one guy now in the offense, so look for a huge game from him.  The Raiders are a decent team that the Packers dismantled last week, so to think that the Chiefs, no matter who their QB is, can stay close is ridiculous.  The Packers move to 14-0 this week in Kansas City.
Packers (-12)

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Jets vs. Eagles
The Jets need this game.  If they run the table, they make the playoffs.  If they prepare and limit what Vick does then they have a shot to win this one on the road.  This is a playoff type game, in a playoff atmosphere.  If the Cowboys and Giants win before this game, then maybe the Eagles lose some of their motivation, as their season will be officially over.  If both teams lose however, then the Eagles are going to be coming out playing their best football of the year because they will still have a chance at the playoffs.  If all is lost though, I see Jackson and others shutting it down and making it easy for the Jets.  The Jets need to do their best to control McCoy.  They have not been special controlling the run this year.  They are ranked 14th in rushing yards allowed this year, giving up 109 per game.  They need to step up here and I think they will.  The Eagles have given up 115 rushing yards a game, 18th best in the league.  They have a difficult task with the physical Shonn Greene running for the Jets.  He is on a great streak as of late, and when he gets hot, the Jets get hot.  In the last three week he has put up an average of 98 yards per game, with four TDs rushing.  He also led the Jets last week in receiving yards with 58.  I think he has another big game in Philly and leads the Jets to another victory.  Sanchez is coming off a big game last week and in interviews this week, he sounds more focused than ever.  He has been playing great and this week has to play error free football to win the game.
Jets (+3)

Saints vs. Vikings

The Saints struggle away from the confines of New Orleans.  This one however, is in a dome, thus making it more like their home turf.  They are playing a struggling Vikings team who have lost five straight games, and are only 2-11 on the season.  The Saints just hung on long enough last week in Tennessee, but the Vikings aren't the Titans, and won't be able to stay close.  They are expecting to get Peterson back, but who knows how effective he will be.  Ponder has been practicing this week so he should be back at QB for the Vikings.  For the Saints, Jimmy Graham had been hurting before the game on Sunday with back pain.  He received treatment on his back, and was a full participant in practice this week, so look for him to be at full strength this week.  The Saints will win this one on the road and continue to battle for the first round bye in the  NFC.
Saints (-8)

Seahawks vs. Bears
The Seahawks are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive and the Bears are trying to get back in the playoff picture.  Seattle has the best running back in football right now.  Lynch is running over every team he faces, and there is no reason to think he won't continue in Chicago.  The Bears are struggling on offense and look like they can barely make a first down, yet alone score a TD.  I like the Seahawks in this one against an injured Bears squad.
Seahawks (+3.5)

Dolphins vs. Buffalo
I think Buffalo will end their losing streak at home against the Dolphins.  After the firing of Sparano in Miami, the Dolphins might have lost the reason to battle the rest of this season.  Both these teams will be doing no more than playing spoiler to other teams as the season winds down.
Buffalo (even)

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Panthers vs. Texans
The Panthers are coming off a tough loss at home against the Falcons.  They led the game 23-7 at halftime and then gave it away after half, giving up 24 unanswered points. The Texans on the other hand, pulled off a stunning comeback against the Bengals in Cincinnati in the final seconds of the game to win 20-19. Yates has been able to keep his team in the game and get a couple wins since taking the reigns at QB.  Houston is trying to stay in the lead of the AFC, as they are currently in first place.  This is a great matchup, as Houston has the 3rd best passing defense and 4th best rushing defense.  The Panthers on the other hand have the 8th most passing yards, and 5th most rushing yards.  It will be interesting to see if Newton can take apart the Houston defense in this game.  If he can, then it will be close, if not, they Carolina doesn't stand a chance.  The Panthers defense is awful, so Yates and Foster have an opportunity to put up big numbers.  Foster might get 150 yards rushing and over 50 yards receiving.  I think Cam has a good game and keeps them close.
Panthers (+6)

Titans vs. Colts
The Titans are sitting in 7th place in the AFC, one spot out of the playoffs.  They might not have Hasselbeck in this game, but against the Colts, will still win.  The Titans have too much to play for to give one up to the winless Colts.  Looks for Chris Johnson to have a big game, especially if Locker gets his first career start at QB.
Titans (-7)

Bengals vs. Rams
The Bengals are continuing to disappear in the end of the season, now losers of 4 of their last 5.  They had a brutal last second loss to Houston in their last game but now go against a bad St. Louis team.  The only way I see the Rams winning is if Steven Jackson has a monster game running the ball.  The Bengals however are 7th in the league against the run, allowing 100 yards even to their opposition.  If they control Jackson, then they win this game easily, and rebound from a handful of tough losses.
Bengals (-7)

Lions vs. Raiders

If the Lions want to hold on to the last playoff spot then they need to beat the reeling Raiders on the road.  The Raiders will be without McFadden again and on the other side, the Lions look like they will be getting Kevin Smith back at runningback.  The Lions should win this game easily and continue to cling to the 6th spot in the NFC.
Lions (-1.5)

Browns vs. Cardinals
The Cardinals are a great team at home, and the Browns are a bad team period.  Cleveland will also be without McCoy this week after taking the viscous hit from Harrison last week against Pittsburgh.  Seneca Wallace will most likely get the start for Cleveland.  The Cardinals are 4-2 at home this year, and should handle the Browns easily this week.  

Cardinals (-6.5)

Ravens vs. Chargers
The Chargers have put together a couple wins and are hoping to continue their modest two game win streak at home against the Ravens.  The Ravens have won four in a row and sit in a tie atop the AFC standings for best record, at 10-3.  Baltimore has a tough task on the road against a Chargers team that has finally found some confidence.  I think this is a great test for the Ravens, but I don't think they get it done.  If they do, it will be a close one, so I will take the Chargers getting 3.

Chargers (+3)

TNF Jax vs. Atl-Win -  http://nargonsports.blogspot.com/2011/12/thursday-night-football-week-15.html 

SNF Dal vs. TB - http://nargonsports.blogspot.com/2011/12/saturday-night-football.html 

Check back for my Monday Night Football pick!

Week 14 Review

 Game of the Week

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          Giants vs. Cowboys
The Giants (7-6) entered this game looking to take first place in the NFC East from the Cowboys (7-6) and take control of the rest of their season.  They began the game strong, sacking Romo for a safety and then added a 23 yard field goal on their next possession.  The Cowboys responded with a TD pass from Romo to Phillips to put Dallas on top 7-5 at the end of the first.  Jacobs ran for a 1 yard TD (and then did a little jig on the star in the endzone) to give New York a 12-7 lead.   Romo again responded with a 9 yard TD to his favorite scoring machine, Laurent Robinson, to give them a 14-12 lead.  The giants would make a field goal, giving them a 15-14 lead.  A field goal with 20 seconds left for Dallas gave them a 17-15 lead at halftime.  After another field goal by Bailey for Dallas, the Giants would take the 22-20 lead on a long 47 yard TD pass from Manning to Manningham in the third quarter.  Romo connected with Robinson for 74 yards and then hit Austin for a 6 yard TD, to take the 27-22 lead in the fourth.  Eli and the Giants would drive again midway through the fourth.  They converted on a 4th and 3 on the Cowboys 37, before Sean Lee intercepted a ball in traffic and off of  a Giants player.  Dallas would beat the Giants coverage and score a huge TD on a pass to Bryant to give Dallas a 34-22 lead.  With over five minutes left, the Giants drove 80 yards in 2:27, as Eli connected on several big pass plays, and ended the drive in the endzone on an 8 yard pass to Ballard with 3:14 remaining, and now trailing 34-29.  The Cowboys went three and out, giving the Giants a chance to win the game.  Manning drove the Giants down field again.  After Manningham dropped a perfect pass that would have given the Giants the lead, Manning composed himself, and continued to drive down field.  The Giants scored a TD with 46 seconds remaining to take the 35-34 lead.  They executed a 2-point conversion to make it a 37-34 game.  Romo connected across the middle to Austin, and then spiked the ball to set up a 47 yard field goal attempt by Bailey.  The kick sailed up and was good, but the Giants called a timeout prior to the snap.  Bailey had to reset himself and do it all over again.  Pierre-Paul would get through the line, and block the following field goal attempt.  The Giants won the game on a blocked field goal and an amazing comeback by Manning.  Manning had 400 yards with 2 TDs and an interception.  Jacobs ran for 101 yards as Bradshaw was benched for the first half.  Nicks had 154 yards on 7 catches.  For Dallas, Romo had 321 yards and 4 TDs.  Felix Jones replaced Murray, and had 16 carries for 106 yards.  Murray left this game with a fractured right ankle, putting the rushing duties in the hand of Felix Jones once again.  This is a huge loss for the Cowboys if Murray is indeed done for the rest of the season.  He was running over teams but now will be sidelined, we will have to see for how long.  Robinson continues to put up insane numbers, catching 4 passes for 137 yards and a TD.  Dallas now need to fight to make the playoffs, as they are in 8th in the NFC.  They will have an uphill battle in the following three weeks.  

Giants (+3) Win

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Bears vs. Broncos

What can be said about this game.  The game was scoreless at halftime, and the Broncos trailed 10-0 with just over four minutes left in regulation.  Tebow drove down field in 2:26, completing 7 of 7 passes for 63 yards, including a 10 yard TD to Thomas to make it a 10-7 game.  They then tried an onside kick that failed.  The Bears took over with 2:08 left, running a play to go to the 2 minute warning.  Out of the warning, Barber took the ball, and ran out of bounds inexplicably.  This allowed the clock to stop for the Broncos.  They had a chance if they could stop the Bears on the next play, a 3rd and 5.  Barber only got one yard, forcing a punt to the Denver 11 yard line.  Denver had 53 seconds to tie the game.  Tebow would manage the game perfectly with those 53 seconds.  He hit Decker for a 9 yard gain, and Decker got out of bounds.  From the 29, Tebow passed to Ball for 11 yards to get to their own 40, where Tebow spiked the ball.  He completed a pass to Willis for 19 yards, where he ran out of bounds.  Tebow missed his receivers on the next 2 passes, and on the following play, scrambled out of bounds for no gain at the Chicago 41 yard line.  This set up an improbable 59 yard field goal attempt by Matt Prater...no chance right?  Wrong.  Prater hit it, to send the game to OT.  Chicago started the overtime with the ball and drove down field.  They were in field goal range, when another crazy play happened for Tebow and the Broncos...Barber fumbled the ball and Denver recovered.  Tebow time again.  He threw an incompletion  followed by a 2 yard pass to McGahee.  On a 3rd and 8, Tebow passed to Thomas for 10 yards and a first down.  Tebow was sacked, and then completed a 16 yard pass to Thomas again, down to the Chicago 40.  After a 1 yard McGahee run, Tebow ran for 5 yards, and then ran for another 1 yard.  This set up a 4th and 3, and a 51 yard field goal attempt to win the game.  Prater would line up, take the kick, and complete another amazing comeback for the Broncos, who are now 8-5.  Tebow will get it done.  He will motivate his teammates and impossible will happen.  He finished going 21 for 40 for 236 yards, a TD, and an INT.  He added 12 carries for 49 yards.  He has led the Broncos to three OT wins this season, and 6 wins in a row.  He is 7-1 as a starter this season.  Tebow is captivating the nation with what he is doing, and whether you love him or hate him, it is amazing to watch.

Broncos (-3.5) Loss

Vikings vs. Lions
This was a very close game.  Surprisingly, the Vikings started to get back in the game after Ponder was removed.  Ponder had turned the ball over three times, and was battling an injury coming into the game.  The Lions scored 31 points before halftime, and held a 31-14 lead at the break.  The Vikings added a TD in the third and fourth quarter, as the Lions would only add a field goal in the fourth.  The Vikings had a chance at the end of the game.  They were faced with a 4th and 6 on Detroit's 12 yard line.  They picked up 10 yards to get down to the 2, where they took a timeout with 9 seconds left.  Webb, who replaced Ponder, was sacked all the way back at the 11, and then fumbled to end the game.  The Lions held on to this one, but it was not easy.  They hold the last spot in the NFC playoff picture as of now.
Lions (-10) Loss

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             Chiefs vs. Jets
The New York Jets are in control of their own fate.  They currently sit in the final playoff spot in the AFC.  If they win out, they will make the playoffs.  They have to play the Eagles next week in Philadelphia, the Giants at the Meadowlands on Christmas eve, and the Dolphins to end the season.  Today, the Jets did what they were supposed to in this game...dominate a bad team.  They destroyed Palko in this game, sacking him five times.  They Jets performed a perfect bootleg for Sanchez to score the first TD of the game.  He then connected to Holmes for a 4 yard TD.  Greene ran all over the Chiefs, and would score the next TD, making it 21-3.  LT made brilliant moves on a pass from Sanchez to weave past defenders, and score on a 19 yard TD.  They led 28-3 at the half. Sanchez rushed for another TD in the 3rd capping off a great game where he went 13/21 for 181 yards and 2 TDs.  He also ran for 2 TDs.  Greene led the team in rushing and receiving, carrying 24 times for 129 yards and a TD, and adding 3 catches for 58 yards.  He is key to the Jets success should they make the playoffs.  Similar to last year, the Jets lose Jim Leonhard in this one, probably for the season.  If they just keep winning, they will attempt another improbable run in the playoffs.  
Jets (-11) Win

Colts vs. Ravens 
The Ravens did what they were supposed to against a winless team this week.  The Ravens won this one by two TDs.  They took a 17-0 lead, and gave up a TD as time expired to make the final score 24-10.  The Ravens remain in the lead of the AFC North, and currently are in second place in the AFC playoff picture, trailing only Houston.  
Colts (+17) Win

Saints vs. Titans
The Saints hung onto a 22-17 lead as time expired in this one.  The Titans received the ball back with 1:34 left, and Locker, who replaced Hasselbeck who left with a strained left calf, completed a 40 yard pass to Nate Washington who pinballed off defenders to the 5 yard line.  Locker had a slant to Mariani defended perfectly by Porter, who swatted it down to protect the lead.  Locker would have one more try, but he could not find anyone open, and ended up getting sacked to end the game.  The Saints needed a road win and got it here.  Brees had another great day, going 36 for 47, for 337 yards and 2 TDs.  Ivory stepped in with Ingram out, with 13 carries for 53 yards.  Colston had 7 catches for 105 yards and a TD.  Locker replaced Hasselbeck going 13 for 29 for 282 yards and a TD.  The Titans (7-6) with this loss, fell to 7th place in the AFC, and are now behind the Jets for the final playoff spot.
Saints (-4) Win

                                                          Texans vs. Bengals

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This game came down to the final seconds.  This was a key matchup to the AFC playoff picture, with the Bengals trying to hold on to their playoff spot.  The Texans were trailing 16-3 at halftime, and 19-10 with under six minutes left in the game.  They hit a field goal, and then get the ball back after the Bengals couldn't do anything.  They took the ball over with 2:33 left and 80 yards to go.  T.J Yates drove down field, accounting for all 80 yards and throwing a 6 yard TD to Kevin Walter with 2 seconds left in the game to give Houston a 20-19 win.  This opens things up in the AFC for the playoffs.  Houston clinched the division with the win and the Titans loss.  The Bengals now sit in 8th place, two spots out of the playoffs.  It might be their year next season, but it looks like this young team is just tired out now at this point of the season.  
Texans (+3) Win



Eagles vs. Dolphins
The Eagles dominated against the Dolphins today, after the Fins took a quick 7-0 lead.  Philly went on to score 24 unanswered points, and won 26-10.  Vick returned in this game for 208 yards, 1 TD and 1 pick.  The Eagles now hope to play spoiler to the Jets next week when they return home.  

Dolphins (-3) Loss

Patriots vs. Redskins
This game was as I predicted, close from beginning to end, and high scoring.  Brady threw for 357 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT.  The interception came in the endzone, and almost allowed for the Redskins to tie the game.  Grossman would drive down the field with 6:30 left and trailing by a TD.  They got to the New England 5, when Grossman threw what looked like a game tying TD, but ended up being offensive pass interference on Moss.  The Redskins came up short on the next two plays, and would lose the game when Grossman's pass was tipped off of Moss's fingers, and landed in the hands of Mayo.  The Redskins played them close and had the lead at two points in the game.  They had the game tied at 27 in the fourth as well.  The Redskins played tough, but in the end, Brady and the Patriots succeeded again.  Gronkowski broke the tight end record for TDs in a season, as he had a ridiculous game, reeling in 6 catches for 160 yards and 2 TDs.  New England (10-3) are in 3rd place overall in the AFC.  
Redskins (+9) Win

Falcons vs. Panthers
You wouldn't know it by the final score, but Atlanta was trailing 23-7 at halftime.  The Falcons must have felt themselves slipping out of the playoffs, because they played with a bit of desperation in the second half.  They cut into the lead with a field goal, and then Matt Ryan hit Jacquizz Rodgers for a 31 yard TD.  That sparked the offense, as they were only trailing 23-17.  Julio Jones had been very quiet, until Matt Ryan started finding him in the fourth.  He caught a 17 yard TD pass a couple minutes into the fourth, which gave Atlanta a 24-23 lead.  Ryan connected again with Jones, this time for a 75 yard TD to make it a 31-23 game.  With just over four minutes remaining, Cam Newton connected with Steve Smith for a 48 yard pass, to give the Panthers a chance.  Cam couldn't connect on the next four passes, and the Panthers came up short in this one.  Matt Ryan had a huge game, with 320 yards and 4 TDs.  Jones had 3 catches for 104 yards and 2 TDs and White had 7 catches for 84 yards and a TD.  Gonzalez once again impressed, with 7 catches for 82 yards.  Newton had 276 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs.  He added 36 yards rushing.  Steve Smith continued to impress with 125 more yards.  The Panthers fall to 4-9, and the Falcons are now 8-5.  Atlanta stays in the final 6 for the playoffs in the NFC with this win.  
Panthers (+3) Loss

Buccaneers vs. Jaguars
Tampa Bay was leading 14-0, before the Jags came back for 42 unanswered points.  Both these teams are well out of the playoff hunt, but the Jags still impressed with their play in this game.  The highlight of this game was MJD, scoring 4 TDs, 2 passing and 2 receiving.
Bucs (-3) Loss

49ers vs. Cardinals
The 49ers went into Arizona and fell victim to the Cardinals home field advantage.  Arizona is 6-7 overall, but are 4-2 at home.  Kolb left the game with a head injury and Skelton did a good job filling in for him.  Skelton had 282 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs.  San Fran had a 6-0 lead, before Skelton connected with Doucet on a 60 yard TD.  Akers added two more field goals for the 49ers before the half, to give the 49ers a 12-7 lead at halftime.  Gore broke out for a 37 yard run to make it 19-7 in the third.  Arizona would strike back with a 46 yard TD pass from Skelton to Fitzgerald to bring them within 5.  In the fourth, Skelton connected with Roberts for a 3 yard TD, to give the Cardinals a 21-19 lead, the score by which they won it.  The 49ers stumbled on the road here and gave away the lead, but they have clinched the division already and currently sit in second place in the NFC playoff picture, with a 10-3 record.  
49ers (-4) Loss

Raiders vs. Packers
There is really not much to say here, except the Packers are on their way to a perfect regular season.  They dismantled the Raiders, scoring 34 points before the Raiders were able to put up any points.  Ryan Grant started the scoring with a 47 yard TD run, and would finish with 85 yards and 2 TDs.  Rodgers had 281 yards, 2 TDs, and a pick.  The Packers lost Greg Jennings with a possible torn MCL.  The Packers are playing on an unbelievable level right now that no team can match.  For the Raiders, Palmer had 4 interceptions, and with all their injuries, seem to be falling out of the playoff picture fast.  They sit in 9th place in the AFC, with a 7-6 record.  
Packers (-13) Win

Bills vs. Chargers
The Chargers dominated this game, leading 16-0 at halftime, and winning 37-10.  Rivers was 24 for 33 with 240 yards and 3 TDs.  Ryan Mathews continued to run wild, with 114 yards on 20 carries.  The Chargers now sit at 6-7, and the Bills are at 5-8, losers of six straight.  Both these teams are pretty much out of the playoff hunt.
Chargers (-7) Win

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Monday Night Football
Rams vs. Seahawks
This one has no playoff implications for either team, but the Seahwaks will believe if they win out and have a lot of help, then maybe they have a chance.  I don't see it though. The Seahwaks this season, are a better team, especially at home.  They are going to win this game and depending on if Bradford plays, will determine how much they will win by.  If Bradford doesn't play I think it will be a big win for Seattle, but if Bradford plays, I can see St. Louis sticking around. Steven Jackson has been doing nothing for the Rams since week 11, so he doesn't look like he will be a factor.  He had three huge games prior to week 11, so maybe he has hit a wall.  As for Seattle, Lynch is coming off his best game of the season, piling up 148 yards rushing and 2 TDs against the Eagles.  Seattle also has extra rest, so I am taking Seattle to cover in this one.  They are the better team.

Update: The Seahawks dominated in this game, winning 30-13.  They continue to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, now sitting at 6-7.  The will need to win out if they want to stay in contention.  Lynch continues to put up crazy numbers, this week piling up 115 yards and a TD.  The Rams continue to struggle, and Bradford is having a season he wishes he could forget. 
Seahawks (-10) Win

TNF- Browns (+14.5) Win   http://nargonsports.blogspot.com/2011/12/thursday-night-football-week-14.html

Week 14 Record: 10-6
Season Record: 31-30-1

Week 14 Preview and Picks

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Week 14

Game of the Week

Giants vs. Cowboys
The Giants are coming off a thrilling game against the Packers that they almost won.  They now play their biggest game of the year against the Cowboys.  A win for the Giants means they will hold the lead in the NFC East.  A win for the Cowboys pretty much ends the Giants season, as they will fall 2 games back.  They do have another matchup this year against each other, but a lot will have to happen for the Giants to lose this and still be in contention when they meet again.  Dallas is coming off a loss that they should have won in Arizona.  I think they respond well in this game against the Giants, but it will not be easy.  Both teams have electric offenses that can explode with one play.  With the Giants getting Bradshaw back last week, we saw Jacobs run the ball well again.  When he is used in a secondary role, Jacobs is very effective, and last week carried 8 times for 59 yards and a TD.  The Giants need to keep the pressure on the Dallas defense, the same way they did against the Packers.  If they play as well as they did against the Packers, then they will win.  They need to play with their A game for the second week in a row.  Dallas needs to get the loss out of their heads from last week and focus on this weeks game.  A win here gives them control of the division, and both teams have tremendous opportunities in front of them.  I have a feeling that the Giants win this game.  But both teams have something rare that we don't see with many teams...they each have three great wide receivers.  For the Giants, it looks like Manningham will play.  And for the Cowboys, it looks like Austin will play.  Nicks, Manningham, and Cruz on one side, and Austin, Bryant, and Robinson on the other?  That can only mean both QBs throwing over 300 yards and a high scoring game.  It is going to be a shootout, with the Cowboys utilizing Murray more this week than last, and finding Dez Bryant and using his height and physicality to pull in a few extra catches.  The Giants will mix it up with Bradshaw and Jacobs as well as the aerial attack.  This game might go back and forth a few times, but after 60 minutes, the Giants will come away as the leaders of the NFC East.
Giants (+3)

Vikings vs. Lions
The Vikings will be without Peterson.  Ponder is playing, but he is reportedly hobbling in the warmups.  I think it is going to be tough for him to have a good game, even he has said he probably won't be 100 percent.  The Lions have lost three of their last four and five of their last seven.  Detroit is 5th in the league in passing yards and Minnesota is 26th in passing yards allowed, so on paper, the Lions should win this game easily. Ponder has been utilizing Harvin very nicely lately.  Last week he had 156 yards with 2 TDs, and in the last 3 weeks has 4 TDs.  He has also had five rushing carries per game the last three week, adding to his total yards each week.  Stafford is turning the ball over at a ridiculous rate, 10 picks in his last 4 games.  He has to play a bit safer and not give the Vikings opportunities on defense.  I do not think the Ponder will be able to have a good game battling the injury, so I will take the Lions here.
Lions (-10)

                                                  Bears vs. Broncos

The Broncos are favored in this game by 3.5.  I think this is just about where this game is going to be.  I am taking Tebow again, of course, but I do think it will be close.  The Bears have a great defense so Tebow will have to find ways to pick it apart and confuse them.  If the Bears get to Tebow more often than he can escape them, then the Bears will win this game, but I think that Tebow will be able to make a few big plays and win this one.  It helps that Chicago is without a QB and without Forte.  Forte is a huge loss for them and without him, the rushing duties fall on Marion Barber.  He will have a good game, but not good enough to carry them to victory.  I think that the Broncos are going to have to start embracing that they are a good team, and they are going to start beating teams before they get to the fourth quarter.  This might be their chance to do that at home against the depleted Bears.  I think the Amazing Tebows do it again and grab a firm hold on the AFC West.
Broncos (-3.5)

Chiefs vs. Jets
The Jets need to keep winning to keep their playoff chances alive.  Sanchez and the Jets were able to get through some rough spots in Washington last week, and hold on for the victory.  They seemed to start to click at the end of the game, so hopefully it carries over into this one.  The Jets however always make it interesting. But the Chiefs offense right now is so bad, that it is hard to think the Jets will not win by at least 10.  Sanchez is starting to find Holmes again, and this is pivotal to New York's success.  Greene returned to his playoff form last week, with 3 TDs.  If he has gotten his groove back then they Jets will win this game easily.  Greene and Sanchez seem to do better when the pressure is on, and at this point in the season, the pressure is certainly on.  Even if the Jets win out, they are not guaranteed a playoff spot, so it is essential that they win the games they need to win.  This one should allow them to figure some things out, but they have to stay focused, and not overlook this game, with a game in Philadelphia looming next weekend.
Jets (-11)

Colts vs. Ravens 
Ravens are 17 point favorites in this one.  The Colts won't win this game, but they won't lost by 17 either.  Flacco is not that explosive of a quarterback to make it a guaranteed blowout win.  The Ravens are playing to keep in front of the Steelers for the division.  A loss would put then behind them, and a win will match the Steelers 10-3 record, thus keeping the Ravens in first due to the tiebreaker.
Colts (+17)

Texans vs. Bengals
The Bengals are starting to tire out it seems.  They are a young team with Dalton at QB, and Green leading the way at WR.  The Texans are going to rely heavily on Foster and Tate in this one, and Foster will play a big role in the passing game as well.  As it stands now, both these teams would make the playoffs, but coming down the stretch, the Bengals really need wins.  They have 3 teams tied with them and as long as they keep winning, they will make it.  I think that Yates has been decent at QB for Houston, but I think he will check down to Foster a lot in this game, and they will be able to pull out the win.  I have been picking the Bengals all year, but I think they are showing signs of fatigue and the Texans have the running game to beat the Bengals on the road in this game.
Texans (+3)

Saints vs. Titans
The Titans are in the middle of a playoff race for the last spot in the AFC.  They currently sit in a 4 way tie with a 7-5 record, but are in 7th as of now, one spot out of the playoffs.  They sit behind the Bengals, who look a bit tired, and might give some ground here in the final few weeks.  The Titans have an easy schedule going forward, but they need to get this game at home.  Chris Johnson has suddenly found his form of a couple years ago the last couple weeks, and has made the Titans very relevant in playoff talks.  They even have an outside chance at their division if Houston loses some games down the stretch.  They have a real test this week with New Orleans coming in red hot.  They have won four in a row, and are staking their claim on the NFC South.  They are without Ingram this week, but they have Sproles.  Sproles plays a huge role in the backfield when it comes to making catches and will now get a few more carries in the rushing department.  The biggest advantage for the Saints?  Drew Brees.  In his last 3 games, he has put up 322, 363, and 343 yards starting three weeks ago in Atlanta.  He has 9 TDs during that stretch and no interceptions.  He is playing at a very high level and I think they he will be able to go to Tennessee and have another huge game.  I like the Saints because of the Brees factor.
Saints (-4)

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Eagles vs. Dolphins
Dolphins continue to play hard for Sparano, sensing his job is on the line.  The team is clicking and it is hard to pick against them.  They are the favorites in this one, as both teams enter with a 4-8 record.  The Eagles have extra rest this week, after their embarrassing loss to the Seahawks last week, but I think the Dolphins still have the advantage in this game.
Dolphins (-3)

Patriots vs. Redskins
I think this game will be closer than people think.  The Redskins are playing a lot better with Grossman at QB.  Moss is going to have a big game Sunday against the Patriots with Davis not playing while he is suspended.  The Patriots will win the AFC East, and Washington will not make the playoffs, but I do think the Redskins will play hard and put up a good amount of points against New England at home.  The Patriots have been playing great football and are due for a close game every now and then.  Redskins play them tough in this one, and keep it within 9.
Redskins (+9)

Falcons vs. Panthers
Falcons are coming off a loss in Houston, in a game that saw Matt Ryan have a very uncharacteristic game.  He started very slow which allowed them to fall behind and they couldn't recover.  Atlanta now sits in the last playoff spot in the NFC and will need to win these games coming up.  The Giants and Detroit are trying to claim a spot, so they need to keep up with their game.  The Panthers are coming off two straight road wins and Cam Newton is playing at a high level right now.  I think they play this game very close, maybe even can get a win here at home against Atlanta.  I think Newton has the tools to win, he will just need a little bit of help from the bad defense of the Panthers.
Panthers (+3)

Buccaneers vs. Jaguars
This is going to be a rough game to watch. The Bucs are the better team though, they just are not putting up the wins this year.  The Jags came out strong last week on Monday Night Football against the Chargers, but quickly lost the lead and got blown out.  They are not better than the Bucs, and I think the Bucs win this game on the road against Jacksonville.
Bucs (-3)

49ers vs. Cardinals
The Cardinals should have lost last week, but won in overtime against Dallas.  Arizona did play a great game to keep it manageable against Dallas, but I think the 49ers are playing on another level right now.  They are storming through the NFC, and I think they go into Arizona and win this one easily.
49ers (-4)

Raiders vs. Packers
The Packers are playing great and the Raiders are still without McFadden.  Moore and Ford are going to be out another week, so Palmer does not have many weapons once again.  The Packers are coming off the exhilarating win in the Meadowlands against the Giants and now return home to Lambeau in December.  This has all the makeup to be a blowout, even with the Packers being without Starks this week in practice.  The Packers are on their way to a perfect regular season, and this game won't have any hiccup potential for them.  Rodgers picks apart the Raiders in this one, and has another great game.
Packers (-13)

Bills vs. Chargers
The Bills continue to lose, as they have lost 5 straight games and 7 of their last 9.  They are going to San Diego to play a Chargers team that dismantled the Jags last week.  There might be a lot of points scored in this game, but with jobs on the line in San Diego, I think the Chargers finally put some heart into their game and win this one at home.  Rivers and Mathews were way too good on Monday night to think that they won't continue against a bad Bills defense.
Chargers (-7)

Check back for my Monday Night Football pick!