Week 15 Review

Patriots vs. Broncos

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The Broncos held a 16-7 lead, before a calamity of turnovers.  They coughed up the ball and couldn't stop the Patriots on third down, leading to 27 unanswered points and a 34-16 lead.  The Patriots never looked back after that as they went on to win 41-23.  This is a minor setback for Tebow, but it showed a few things about Tebow.  He showed that he could throw in the beginning of the game when he had to, and that had been questioned coming into this game.  The Broncos were simply overwhelmed as this game continued, but it was a good check for them as they get ready for the playoffs.

Broncos (+7.5) Loss

Redskins vs. Giants
An embarrassing game for the Giants.  They are now in a position where they basically need to win the last two games to assure the playoffs.  They were never in this game against the Redskins, even after starting the game with a pick of Grossman.  The game was ugly from the beginning and the Redskins showed everyone that they do indeed have a defense that can click and stifle an offense.  The Giants need to rebound next week, in what will be a crazy atmosphere in New Jersey.  They take on the Jets at MetLife Stadium, in front of a crowd that will primariliy be Jets fans.  It will be a crazy game, and they way it looks now, will be a very tough game on both teams.
Giants (-7) Loss

Packers vs. Chiefs
Who saw this coming?  The Chiefs defeated the Packers in a shocking game.  The Packers had to think this game was going to be the easiest one left in the season, but they were stunned by the Chiefs in Kansas City.  Kansas City was led by Orton in his first start.  He threw for 299 yards going 23/31.  Rodgers just could not get anything going and their hopes for an undefeated season ended.  On Thanksgiving, I still thought they would not pull off the undefeated season, but they finally got me believing after the last two games.  And now this week, it ends.  Good win by the Chiefs in this one.
Packers (-12) Loss

Jets vs. Eagles

The Jets fell behind 28-0 in what looked like the rout in Baltimore earlier this season.  They were able to salvage 13 points at the end of the half to make it a 28-13 game, but the Eagles struck for another TD to start the second half and would continue to pile it on.  The Jets were helped by the Titans losing, but hurt by the Bengals winning.  They now must win the final two games if they want to make it to the playoffs.
Jets (+3) Loss

Saints vs. Vikings

Brees put up 5 TDs and 412 yards in this game.  The Saints blew out the Vikings, as they should have, and move to 11-3 this season.
Saints (-8) Win

Seahawks vs. Bears
Lynch did not put up a lot of yards, only 42, but he ran for 2 TDs.  The Seahawks had no problem in the second half putting away the lifeless Bears.  The Bears have no QB, and are slowly slipping out of the playoff picture.
Seahawks (+3.5) Win

Dolphins vs. Buffalo
Miami went to Buffalo in the snow and pulled off the victory.  Reggie Bush thought he was back at USC, running for over 200 yards.  They won 30-23, as Buffalo has now lost 7 in a row.

Buffalo (even) Loss

Panthers vs. Texans

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The first half was dominated by the Panthers, and unlike last week, they were able to maintain the lead and win this one.  Carolina jumped out to a 21-0 lead and carried it to halftime.  They would hold on to win, 28-13.  The Texans playoff position still looks good, but they will have to battle for a first round bye.  

Panthers (+6) Win

Titans vs. Colts
The Colts finally win a game, and do it against a Tennesse team that is battling for a playoff spot.  Donald Brown took control of the game, with 161 yards rushing and a TD.  The Colts finally fill the win column this season.
Titans (-7) Loss

Bengals vs. Rams
Cincy gave up a late TD to bring the score closer, but it was not a close second half. The Bengals controlled the second half, after trailing 6-3 at half time.  They relied heavily on their running game with Benson and Scott.  The Bengals remain in the playoff hunt after pulling off this win.

Bengals (-7) Push

Lions vs. Raiders

The Lions completed a 98 yard drive with two minutes left to take the 28-27 lead against Oakland.  The Lions remain in the hunt for the playoffs after this comeback win in Oakland.
Lions (-1.5) Loss

Browns vs. Cardinals

Seneca Wallace filled in nicely for McCoy in this one.  The Browns jumped out to a 10-0 lead before they surrendered a TD with 25 seconds left in the half.  Wallace found Little in the third for a 76 yard TD to make it 17-7.  The Cardinals came back however, and tied it at 17 to force the game into overtime, where they would go on to win on a field goal, 20-17.

Cardinals (-6.5) Loss

Ravens vs. Chargers

The Chargers dominated this one and are keep their playoff hopes alive.  The Ravens are not as good a team on the road as they are at home, and this trend continues.  They will now battle with the Steelers for the division in the final two weeks.  

Chargers (+3) Win

MNF- Steelers vs. 49ers

The Steelers were unable to play well with a hobbled Big Ben.  They now fall to 5th place in the AFC and miss their opportunity to claim the first seed.  The 49ers continue to roll and dominated in this game.  Both teams are headed to the playoffs, so this one was all about positioning for the playoffs.

Steelers (+3) Loss

TNF Jax vs. Atl - Win -  http://nargonsports.blogspot.com/2011/12/thursday-night-football-week-15.html 

Dal vs. TB - Win - http://nargonsports.blogspot.com/2011/12/saturday-night-football.html

Week 15 Preview and Picks

Patriots vs. Broncos

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The Broncos are looking to continue their current win streak. They will go for their seventh straight against the Pats in Denver.  After a shootout in Minnesota, they returned to their typical ways of playing last Sunday.  They were trailing all game, Tebow was only 3-16 before the fourth quarter, and had a 13.5 QB rating.  It looked like he might actually lose.  Until he went on a typical fourth quarter Tebow tear.  He took advantage of a lazy Bears defense and picked them apart.  He led receivers with his throws and looked like he was in control of the game.  He completed 13 of 17 passes in the fourth quarter and overtime for 130 yards and a TD.  Will we see it again this week?  If Tebow wants to pull off another victory he is going to have to take advantage of the wounded and weak Patriots defense.  He will have to make throws that he usually makes in the fourth quarter, all game long.  If he can execute and mix in McGahee and his own running game, then this has all the makings of another huge win for Tebow and the Broncos.  The Broncos are going to have to bring their A game on defense as well.  They have been playing at a very high level, but they are going to have to step it up even more.  They need to keep close from the beginning and not let Brady pull too far ahead.  They will need to be creative in the way they attack the Patriots and Brady.  It is impossible to pick against Tebow right now.  He is bringing out the best in his teammates, and making them believe that they can beat just about anyone.  For what it's worth, the Patriots have lose their last three games in Denver.  I like the Broncos to stun the Pats in Denver.  In terms of the spread on this one, the Pats are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 road games, and the Broncos are 1-4-1 against the spread in their last 6 home games.  I think the Broncos are an excellent option getting 7 points in this matchup.
Broncos (+7.5)

Redskins vs. Giants
The Giants are now on top of the division and will win it if they win out.  They have been piling up the offensive numbers, but their defense, much like Dallas, has been questionable.  The Redskins have a pretty good defense, so it might be a challenge for the Giants to break through. They have the big play capability however, and that should be enough against the Skins.  The Giants are back to using Jacobs and Bradshaw.  On the season, they both have 130 carries, Bradshaw has 490 yards and 5 TDs, and Jacobs has 480 yards and 7 TDs.  Most the season it has been one or the other playing.  They are at their best when Bradshaw is the main back and Jacobs is complimenting him.  Look for a return to that type of run game.  The Giants need to use the run game a bit, even though it will be tempting to just air it out all day to Cruz and Nicks.  They should win this game by a TD at least.  If they don't win by at least a TD, then the Redskins will have probably upset the Giants at home.
Giants (-7)

Packers vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs will be making a change at QB if Orton is healthy enough to go.  It won't make a difference though.  The Packers can't be stopped right now and are simply embarrassing teams.  Even with the loss of Jennings, they are going to destroy KC.  Finley is going to be used as the number one guy now in the offense, so look for a huge game from him.  The Raiders are a decent team that the Packers dismantled last week, so to think that the Chiefs, no matter who their QB is, can stay close is ridiculous.  The Packers move to 14-0 this week in Kansas City.
Packers (-12)

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Jets vs. Eagles
The Jets need this game.  If they run the table, they make the playoffs.  If they prepare and limit what Vick does then they have a shot to win this one on the road.  This is a playoff type game, in a playoff atmosphere.  If the Cowboys and Giants win before this game, then maybe the Eagles lose some of their motivation, as their season will be officially over.  If both teams lose however, then the Eagles are going to be coming out playing their best football of the year because they will still have a chance at the playoffs.  If all is lost though, I see Jackson and others shutting it down and making it easy for the Jets.  The Jets need to do their best to control McCoy.  They have not been special controlling the run this year.  They are ranked 14th in rushing yards allowed this year, giving up 109 per game.  They need to step up here and I think they will.  The Eagles have given up 115 rushing yards a game, 18th best in the league.  They have a difficult task with the physical Shonn Greene running for the Jets.  He is on a great streak as of late, and when he gets hot, the Jets get hot.  In the last three week he has put up an average of 98 yards per game, with four TDs rushing.  He also led the Jets last week in receiving yards with 58.  I think he has another big game in Philly and leads the Jets to another victory.  Sanchez is coming off a big game last week and in interviews this week, he sounds more focused than ever.  He has been playing great and this week has to play error free football to win the game.
Jets (+3)

Saints vs. Vikings

The Saints struggle away from the confines of New Orleans.  This one however, is in a dome, thus making it more like their home turf.  They are playing a struggling Vikings team who have lost five straight games, and are only 2-11 on the season.  The Saints just hung on long enough last week in Tennessee, but the Vikings aren't the Titans, and won't be able to stay close.  They are expecting to get Peterson back, but who knows how effective he will be.  Ponder has been practicing this week so he should be back at QB for the Vikings.  For the Saints, Jimmy Graham had been hurting before the game on Sunday with back pain.  He received treatment on his back, and was a full participant in practice this week, so look for him to be at full strength this week.  The Saints will win this one on the road and continue to battle for the first round bye in the  NFC.
Saints (-8)

Seahawks vs. Bears
The Seahawks are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive and the Bears are trying to get back in the playoff picture.  Seattle has the best running back in football right now.  Lynch is running over every team he faces, and there is no reason to think he won't continue in Chicago.  The Bears are struggling on offense and look like they can barely make a first down, yet alone score a TD.  I like the Seahawks in this one against an injured Bears squad.
Seahawks (+3.5)

Dolphins vs. Buffalo
I think Buffalo will end their losing streak at home against the Dolphins.  After the firing of Sparano in Miami, the Dolphins might have lost the reason to battle the rest of this season.  Both these teams will be doing no more than playing spoiler to other teams as the season winds down.
Buffalo (even)

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Panthers vs. Texans
The Panthers are coming off a tough loss at home against the Falcons.  They led the game 23-7 at halftime and then gave it away after half, giving up 24 unanswered points. The Texans on the other hand, pulled off a stunning comeback against the Bengals in Cincinnati in the final seconds of the game to win 20-19. Yates has been able to keep his team in the game and get a couple wins since taking the reigns at QB.  Houston is trying to stay in the lead of the AFC, as they are currently in first place.  This is a great matchup, as Houston has the 3rd best passing defense and 4th best rushing defense.  The Panthers on the other hand have the 8th most passing yards, and 5th most rushing yards.  It will be interesting to see if Newton can take apart the Houston defense in this game.  If he can, then it will be close, if not, they Carolina doesn't stand a chance.  The Panthers defense is awful, so Yates and Foster have an opportunity to put up big numbers.  Foster might get 150 yards rushing and over 50 yards receiving.  I think Cam has a good game and keeps them close.
Panthers (+6)

Titans vs. Colts
The Titans are sitting in 7th place in the AFC, one spot out of the playoffs.  They might not have Hasselbeck in this game, but against the Colts, will still win.  The Titans have too much to play for to give one up to the winless Colts.  Looks for Chris Johnson to have a big game, especially if Locker gets his first career start at QB.
Titans (-7)

Bengals vs. Rams
The Bengals are continuing to disappear in the end of the season, now losers of 4 of their last 5.  They had a brutal last second loss to Houston in their last game but now go against a bad St. Louis team.  The only way I see the Rams winning is if Steven Jackson has a monster game running the ball.  The Bengals however are 7th in the league against the run, allowing 100 yards even to their opposition.  If they control Jackson, then they win this game easily, and rebound from a handful of tough losses.
Bengals (-7)

Lions vs. Raiders

If the Lions want to hold on to the last playoff spot then they need to beat the reeling Raiders on the road.  The Raiders will be without McFadden again and on the other side, the Lions look like they will be getting Kevin Smith back at runningback.  The Lions should win this game easily and continue to cling to the 6th spot in the NFC.
Lions (-1.5)

Browns vs. Cardinals
The Cardinals are a great team at home, and the Browns are a bad team period.  Cleveland will also be without McCoy this week after taking the viscous hit from Harrison last week against Pittsburgh.  Seneca Wallace will most likely get the start for Cleveland.  The Cardinals are 4-2 at home this year, and should handle the Browns easily this week.  

Cardinals (-6.5)

Ravens vs. Chargers
The Chargers have put together a couple wins and are hoping to continue their modest two game win streak at home against the Ravens.  The Ravens have won four in a row and sit in a tie atop the AFC standings for best record, at 10-3.  Baltimore has a tough task on the road against a Chargers team that has finally found some confidence.  I think this is a great test for the Ravens, but I don't think they get it done.  If they do, it will be a close one, so I will take the Chargers getting 3.

Chargers (+3)

TNF Jax vs. Atl-Win -  http://nargonsports.blogspot.com/2011/12/thursday-night-football-week-15.html 

SNF Dal vs. TB - http://nargonsports.blogspot.com/2011/12/saturday-night-football.html 

Check back for my Monday Night Football pick!

Saturday Night Football

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Cowboys vs. Bucs

The Cowboys are coming off of a tough loss at home against the Giants.  They now are behind the Giants in the division, but all is not lost.  They have a matchup in week 17 against the Giants, so if they keep winning, they will keep their hopes alive.  The defense needs to step up.  Romo is doing all he can for Dallas and it is time for the defense to pick it up.  I tend to always believe the Bucs are going to show up and fight, but I think it is safe to say they are a bad team, and should get blown away here.  With a game back under Miles Austin's belt, I think he has a better game than last week and helps the Cowboys more.  Although they are without Murray not, Felix Jones looked god last week when he had to step in for him.  They look like they should have no problem with the Bucs, if they can get the memories of their last two games out of their heads.

Dallas (-7) Win

Update: Dallas wins in a rout, 31-15

Week 13 @ The Half

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1 p.m. games

New England started slow, but is starting to get things going in Foxboro, 17-3.  Pittsburgh put up 28 in the second quarter and lead Cincy 28-7.  Tennessee winning 17-10, Chris Johnson another good game already.  KC and Chicago are struggling in this one without QBs.  Forte left with a knee injury as well.  Oakland is being shutout by Miami, 13-0.  Minnesota took a late lead against Tebow and lead 12-7.  Newton putting on a show in Tampa as they lead 21-12.  Jets are playing very sloppy and are lucky to still be close against Washington, trailing 13-10.  Atlanta got behind early against Houston, but managed to get a field goal in this one.  Yates is impressing at QB for Houston, 10 for 17 with 154 yards and a TD.

                                                                                                         4 p.m. games

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The Giants trail 21-17 as they lost the lead with just over a minute left in the half.  They went on to turn the ball over as the offense was not aware of a live ball that came out of Manning's hands.  The Packers recovered and gained a few yards but Crosby missed a field goal to end the half, his second miss of the year.  Starks has left the game with an ankle injury.  In Arizona, Laurent Robinson has left the game with a shoulder injury.  Robinson had 41 yards before exiting. Felix Jones has 25 yards, and Murray has 23 on the ground.  Romo is 10 for 18 with 130 yards and a TD.  Dez Bryant has 3 catches for 40 yards and a TD.  Giants and Packers have a back and forth game going in New York.  In Cleveland, Baltimore leads 10-0 at halftime as Rice is having a great first half, 107 yards and a TD.  Williams is also having a good rushing game for Baltimore with 43 yards.  Flacco is 7/14 with 102 yards.  In San Francisco, the 49ers have a 9-0 lead.  Smith is 13 for 18 with 128 yards and Gore has 46 yards on the ground.  St. Louis is without Bradford and can not get much going, Feeley has only 68 yards passing and Jackson only has 9 yards rushing.

Monday Night Football

Rivers and the Chargers started to turn it around at the end of the half, looking to avoid their seventh straight loss.  After San Diego took a 10-0 lead in the first, the Jags stormed back for 2 TDs in the second to take a 14-10 lead.  But the Chargers were able to regain the lead at the half, 24-14, on a couple Rivers TD passes with under two minutes left.  Rivers finished the half 16 for 21 with 202 yards and 2 TDs, and Mathews had 56 yards on 6 carries.  Tolbert added 21 yards and a TD.  Jackson has 72 yards and a TD receiving.  For Jacksonville, Gabbert is 11 for 15 with 139 yards and 2 TDs ad an INT.  MJD has 50 yards rushing and receiving has 87 yards and a TD.

Week 13 Preview and Picks

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Week 13

Jets vs. Redskins
The Jets escaped again last week at home vs. Buffalo.  Now they travel to Washington, who has had a momentum boost with Grossman taking over at QB again.  Washington matches up really well against the Jets, because the Jets weakest link right now is their offensive line.  Sanchez has been getting hit far too much and therefore throwing more interceptions.  Besides that, Hall of the Redskins has spoken about Sanchez and his tendency to stare down the receiver he is going to right after the snap.  Teams are recognizing this, and this has also been resulting in more interceptions and pick sixes.  He needs to break this trend. He is giving the other teams a heads up as to who he is throwing to and very seldom does he go to his second or third options.  He needs to do this, and this week they are getting LT back, so he will be able to at least check down to LT if his first option is not there.  Sanchez is key to the Jets success.  In Jets wins this year, he has 13 TDs and 6 INTs.  In their losses, he has 5 TDs and 5 INTs.  He will need to take what his offensive line gives him, hopefully they step up, and he can buy some time to make big plays.  The Jets need this game if they want to stay in the playoff hunt.
Jets (-3) Win

Colts vs. Patriots
In 1992, the Buffalo Bills covered a 20 point spread twice.  That was the last time a team covered a 20+ spread.  The Colts are starting UCONN alum, Dan Orlovsky, and I just don't think they will be able to hang close, plus the Patriots love to keep scoring even when the game is out of reach.
Patriots (-21) Loss

Titans vs. Bills

Bills are reeling, even after almost pulling off a victory at the Meadowlands.  Stevie Johnson was fined for his endzone celebration and this guy lets things get to him.  I think he might not have a very productive day, and without him it is hard for the Bills to get the big plays.  Tennessee has a solid defense and maybe Chris Johnson has finally found his rhythm on offense.  If he did, he can have another huge game against a bad Bills defense.  I look for this game to be very close, but I think that Tennessee is playing with more confidence at this point in the season.

Titans (+1) Win

Chiefs vs. Bears
This is the matchup of injured QBs.  The Chiefs are going with Palko as their starter.  They have Orton on the bench who would be an immediate upgrade, but they are sticking with Palko.  The Bears are sending out Hanie again.  Last week they kept it close in Oakland.  They need to stick to the running game and not take away carries from Forte.  If Forte has another week sharing carries with Barber, then I expect him to start shutting it down and making a statement that he does not deserve to split carries.  I am taking Kansas City with the points, but I think Chicago will win if Forte doesn't have to share again.
Chiefs (+8) Win

Raiders vs. Dolphins
Raiders are traveling across the country, and Miami is well rested after their Thanksgiving nail biter.  Oakland has been playing good football as of late with Carson Palmer getting a grasp on the playbook.  McFadden will still be out, but Bush continues to carry the load well.  With Tebow coming up strong, Oakland has to keep their foot on the gas and not let the Broncos tie the division, but Moore and Ford are not going to be starting again, limiting what Palmer can do. I think it will be close, but I do not know if Oakland can win again without three starters on offense.  I think it will be close either way.  Heyward-Bey needs to have a more productive day than last week if they want to beat a hot Miami team on the road.  I like the Raiders getting 3 points in this one, even though they might lose by a point or two.
Raiders (+3) Loss

Bengals vs. Steelers
Here we go again, another test for the Bengals.  After keeping things close against the Steelers and Ravens in consecutive weeks, they put up a stinker against the Browns at home last week but still won.  They were lucky to win that game and now have to travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers again.  The Steelers almost let one slip away against the Chiefs last week in an ugly game.  I expect a playoff type battle in this one.  After the close games both these teams played last week, I expect another close one between these two teams.
Bengals (+7) Loss

Falcons vs. Texans
Falcons have been playing well, and White has been a reason for it.  In the last two weeks, he has put up numbers that we have come to expect in past seasons.  Two weeks ago, he had 7 catches for 147 yards.  Last week he caught 10 passes for 120 yards and a TD.  With this kind of production, the Falcons are a very dangerous team.  The Texans will be starting Yates again, so they will rely heavily on Foster and Tate and Atlanta will be able to stack the box.  I like Atlanta in this one.
Falcons (-1.5) Win
 
Panthers vs. Buccaneers
Both these teams are out of the playoff hunt.  The Bucs have lost 5 in a row and Freeman is not starting because of a shoulder injury.  Cam Newton on the other hand, is having a stellar season, but the rest of his team is not that good.  I would look for a huge game from Newton and Smith.  Carolina is ranked 6th in road passing, and 4th in road rushing.  This is up against Tampa's 29th home passing defense and 17th home rushing defense ranks.  I like Carolina to win this game.
Panthers (-2) Win

Broncos vs. Vikings
I believe in Tebow.  After last weeks comeback and overtime win, I can not do anything but believe in the Broncos and what Tebow has done for this team.  Earlier this week he was asked by head coach John Fox to give a speech to the team, and the team responded well.  This kid is getting it done and I will take him until he gives me a reason not to.
Broncos (even) Win

Packers vs. Giants
Giants look awful right now, but they need to put up a good game here to end all of the negative talk.  I think they keep it relatively close here.  With Bradshaw coming back, it might ignite the running game.  Eli continues to pile up yards as Cruz keeps putting up monster numbers.  Don't forget about Nicks on the other side of the hash marks.  The Giants have the weapons to keep it close, but do they have the heart?  The Packers are...well...the Packers.  They will probably put up 35 points in this one, it is just a matter of Eli keeping up.  They are the best team in the league, and if they are clicking on defense, then the Giants will get blown away.  But in a huge game before playing Dallas, I think the Giants put up a fight and build some momentum for next week. 
Giants (+7) Win

Ravens vs. Browns
Browns have Hillis back at running back, but I think the Ravens are a better team, but not as good as they believe they are.  But, if they are serious contenders in the AFC, then there is no reason they do not beat the Browns by more than a TD.
Ravens (-7) Win

Rams vs. 49ers
The Rams are not a good team this season and the 49ers are 7-0-1 against the spread in their last 8.  Got to keep it going this week.
49ers (-14) Win

Cowboys vs. Cardinals
I think the Cowboys blow the Cardinals away in this one.  They are without Austin again, but Laurent Robinson has stepped in and put up huge numbers.  He has scored at least one TD in five straight games, and in those five games, he has a total of 7 TDs.  There is no reason to expect anything different this week.  Murray is still running with the top backs in the league and Romo is in the zone lately.  Dallas wins this game easily.
Cowboys (-4.5) Loss

Lions vs. Saints
The Saints are starting to destroy teams again at home.  This game worries me if I am Detroit.  After all the publicity with the Suh stomping incident and now a car crash, it is going to be interesting to see how they respond.  Stafford has been turning the ball over like crazy since week 8, when he fractured his index finger.  He has thrown 9 interceptions in 3 weeks.  If he continues this, then look for another bad loss for Detroit.  New Orleans has been utilizing Jimmy Graham perfectly.  He had 5 catches for 84 yards and 2 TDs.  He is unstoppable, and Brees is even better.  He had a historic game last week and is on fire, but I think Stafford finds Calvin Johnson in this game and they have a big day, good enough to keep it close.
Lions (+9) Loss

Monday Night Football

Chargers vs. Jaguars
I don't see any way that the Chargers don't win this game.  Yes they have lost six in a row, but they have a lot more skill than the Jags, so it will be hard to understand if they lose this one.  They need to pull off a win here to not be completely embarrassed.  The Jaguars are bad and if the Chargers don't show up tonight, then they probably won't show up for the rest of their games.  Rivers needs to prove he has some fight in him.  I am going to think that the Chargers will show minimal effort, and that should be enough to win.
Chargers (-3) Win

TNF: Seattle (+3) Won

Check my post for thoughts on this weeks games here...
http://nargonsports.blogspot.com/2011/12/week-13-review.html

Week 12 Thanksgiving Picks and Wrap Up

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WEEK 12

Packers vs. Lions

Detroit is coming off an outburst against Carolina.  Trailing big against the Panthers, they went on to assault them, putting up 49 points.  The Lions had been lackadaisical since week 6, compiling a 1-3 record since then.  They started slow here, and then straightened things out.  I am hoping this turns it around for the Lions and expect them to show up on Thanksgiving against the Packers.  This is the biggest game in years in Detroit and the place will be electric.  I don't expect it to rattle Rodgers a great amount, but I do expect the Lions to get a few big plays from their D (big 3rd down stops, etc.)  The Packers are not sure if Starks will play.  Starks is a good back and may put up decent yards if he plays, but I think the Lions defense will be able to consistently play the pass and try to contain Rodgers.  Rodgers is the best QB in the league right now, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him put up another monster day, but I think the Lions and Stafford will be able to hang with him.  Detroit showed last week that they can still put up huge numbers, even without Calvin Johnson catching 2 TDs.  He still had a good day, 5 catches for 89 yards, but not the 2 TD game he was accounting for every game in the beginning of the season.  As long as he can go out on the field with his ankle injury, then I give Detroit a chance here.  If he is on the field, he will draw double coverage, opening things up for Stafford to find other targets.  I like the Lions to keep it close and perhaps take down the undefeated Packers.
Lions (+7) Loss

UPDATE: Packers dominate in win, Suh ejected, Lions lose 27-15

A few factors went into the Lions losing this one. 
1.  Kevin Smith left the game with a high ankle sprain after dominating the first drive of the game. 
2.  Suh was ejected.  The game really ended when he lost his temper.  The guy can have a huge impact but unfortunately for the Lions today, he lost his cool and lost the game.  A 4th and goal became a 1st and goal and an easy TD for Green Bay.
3. The interceptions by Stafford certainly did not help at all, as the Packers scored 2 TD's off of them. 
The Packers went on to dominate, only giving up a couple 4th quarter scores to the dangerous Detroit offense.  Solid performance by Rodgers once again, and the Packers are one step closer to perfection.

Dolphins vs. Cowboys
Cowboys will be without Miles Austin, but Robinson has been filling in nicely.  Dallas at home on Thanksgiving against a streaking Miami team equals a more interesting matchup than it was a few weeks ago.  I still feel confident taking the Cowboys by a TD.  I think Miami will put up a fight, but DeMarco Murray is running as good as the best backs in football right now and I do not think Miami will be able to stop him and control Dez and Robinson at the same time.  Oh, and don't forget the current tear that Romo is on.  They are clicking all around, and can see the NFC East title within their grasps.  This game might be close, but Dallas will win, and I believe they will win by at least a TD.
Cowboys (-7) Loss

UPDATE: Cowboys kick last second field goal to win 20-19
    

     Dallas wins in a wild one, even though Miami came out fighting in this game and almost pulled it off. Murray, another good game, rushing for 87 yards and catching 4 passes for 41 yards. Romo started the game shaky with two picks in the first quarter, but settled things down and kept the game close.  Robinson put up the best numbers, with 7 catches for 79 yards and 2 touchdowns.  He is becoming Romo's favorite target as of late.  As for Miami, their three game win streak ends but they played real well.  Moore threw for 288 yards and a TD to Marshall, who finished with 5 catches for 103 yards.  Reggie Bush continues to put up good numbers.  With these three clicking, they might be able to pull off a few more wins this season.  But today, the Cowboys had the last drive and therefore, won this game.

49ers vs. Baltimore

49ers have been on a roll all season.  Baltimore seems to always pull out the win as of late, but they are going up against a defense that has not given up a rushing touchdown all season.  Gore is all banged up, but even so, he had a good week last week (88 yards on 24 carries.)  Their running game looks good Gore should have a large workload and they have Kendall Hunter to provide support should he not be able to make it through the game.  Alex Smith has not made mistakes this year and if he can continue this trend, then this will be a close game until the end.  The NFC as a whole has been praised when compared to the AFC this year, but the question is...are the teams in the AFC less superior or are they beating up on each other resulting in more mediocre records?  I think this game is a good gauge on top AFC and NFC teams and where each team stands in their Super Bowl quests.  I see the 49ers battling the Ravens on national television and proving that they are for real.
49ers (+3)

 UPDATE: Ravens win defensive battle, 16-6    
    
    

Happy Thanksgiving and enjoy the games!
Check back here to get a wrap up of all of today's games, and later this week look for the rest of my picks!

Week 11...A Week I'd Like To Forget...

courtesy © NFL

WOW...what a week...If only my picks were as good as my fantasy team!  So...what went wrong?

Jets vs. Tebow (Broncos) Read my article on Tebow.  We all know how this story ends.
Jets (-6) LOSS

Titans vs. Falcons
As i predicted, a lack of Julio Jones meant an explosive game from Roddy White, complimented by Tony Gonzalez.  White, 7 for 147, and Gonzalez, 5 for 74 and a TD. 
Falcons (-5.5)  WIN

Bills vs. Dolphins
Wow...goodbye to the Bills.  I gave them credit and thought maybe it was just a couple bad losses, and this is what I get in return?  Matt Moore is trying to prove they never needed Luck.
Bills (+2) LOSS

Bengals vs. Ravens
This game could have ended very differently had the refs not, in my mind, blown a call.  An originally ruled TD on the field was overturned to an incomplete pass...I understand why, but don't agree with the rule.  The receiver carried the ball across the end zone and then fell out of bounds and dropped it.  The ball already crossed.  The whole ruling gets me angry.  It is common since that it was a TD...Cincy settled for a field goal, instead of the TD with 5 min left, and came up just short.  Two weeks in a row though taking on a tough divisional opponent, and falling just short.  Shows a lot about the Bengals, they are for real.
Bengals (+7) PUSH

Jaguars vs. Browns
Held my breath here...after Cleveland missed a field goal, the Jags got down the field and had a 4th and goal and 1 second left on the 1 yard line...and they couldn't get it in. Too close for me. 
Browns (-1.5) WIN

Raiders vs. Vikings
Raiders almost gave this one away, but held on.  Bush continued to fill in nicely for McFadden, going 30 for 109.
Raiders (+1)  WIN

Panthers vs. Lions
This was just a crazy game and the game of the day for me.  Cam led the Panthers to a 17 point second quarter lead, and held a 27-14 lead at halftime.  Then came the collapse of the Panthers, as I come to expect.  21 straight points by the Lions, and a 35-27 lead in the fourth quarter, before Cam did it again.  He stormed down field, and got a 6 yard rushing TD, followed by a 2-point conversion to Steve Smith.  35-35. Then a pick by Cam and a quick 2 TDs later, and the Panthers lose again and the Lions cover.  And Stafford, who started the game with 2 picks, ended up throwing 5 TD's after the picks.  What a game.
Panthers (+7) LOSS

Buccaneers vs. Packers
Bucs kept fighting, and kept it closer than I thought it would be.  Had it not been for a very rare pick by Rodgers in the fourth, then it was looking like a 15 point game.
Packers (-14) LOSS

Cowboys vs. Redskins
Skins put on a show here and wouldn't go down easy, pushing it to OT, and turning my push, into a loss.  Another impressive game out of Murray, rushing 25 times for 73 yards and catching 6 passes for 32 yards.  Felix Jones returned, but for only 5 carries and 18 yards.  Murray has ignited this team and although they didn't blow the Skins out, they continue to roll.
Dallas (-7) LOSS

Cardinals vs. 49ers
49er's were too dominant on defense, limiting Beanie Wells to 33 yards and forcing him to fumble.  Skelton got forced out of the game after a 6 for 19 performance, for 99 yards and 3 INT's.
Cardinals (+10) LOSS

Seahawks vs. Rams
Nothing from the Rams in this one, a weak performance against a bad team, one that I thought was worse than the Rams.
Rams (-3)  LOSS

Chargers vs. Bears
Bears continue to dominate, although Cutler looks like he needs season ending surgery on his broken thumb.  They dominated the second half of this one and take away another huge win and continue roll, as the Chargers are in full collapse mode.  They did this without gaudy numbers from Forte (20 for 57), but without Cutler going forward, Forte will have to resume what he had been doing all season.
Bears (-4.5) WIN

Eagles vs. Giants
Giants continue to do what they can to give away the NFC East.  Giants could not find any offense in this one.  And when they were still given a chance in the final minutes, Eli coughed it up to pretty much end the game.  A terrible loss for them and now they have to deal with the Cowboys for the division.  They needed this game at home against a hurt Eagles team, but tonight, the Eagles had more heart.  This was their must win game, against their rivals, and they showed up.
Giants (-5.5) LOSS

Chiefs vs. PatriotsPats dominate the second half at home, like they should against a depleted Chiefs team.  In the process, increase their lead in the AFC East.
Patriots (-14.5) WIN

My Week 11 picks: 5-8-1