Week 16 Preview and Picks

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Game of the Week

Giants vs. Jets

     The deciding factor in this game is if the Jets offensive line can protect against Sanchez from a pounding by the Giants defense.  For the Jets to win, their offensive line needs to step up.  The Jets have to protect Sanchez coming off a game against the Eagles when he was sacked 4 times.  The Giants have 37 sacks this season on opposing QBs and the Jets have allowed 33 sacks.  Jason Pierre-Paul alone has 13.5 sacks.  If Sanchez has time to make plays, then they can win this game.  In the Jets victories this year, Sanchez has 16 TDs and 6 INTs.  In their losses: 7 and 7.  The Giants have given up the 29th most passing yards per game this year (258).  It won't fall completely on him however as Greene continues to run the ball well for the Jets.  Greene has been playing great since his awful first four games, especially in the last four weeks.  In the eight Jet wins this year, he has 5 TDs and 632 yards.  In their six losses, he has 1 TD and only 309 yards.  Add a little bit of LT and I think the Jets will be able to pile up yards against the Giants.
    On paper the Giants offense is more dynamic, with the backfield of Bradshaw and Jacobs, the phenomenal year Manning is having, and the three above average receivers, it will be a matter of if they can exploit the Jets defense.  As game time approaches however, it looks Manningham will not be playing. The Jets have the 7th best pass defense, allowing 205 yards per game.  The Giants have the 3rd best pass offense, throwing for 299 yards per game.  The Jets will need to stay with their receivers and defend the pass and force the Giants to run more.  The Giants might be able to exploit the Jets rush defense if Bradshaw can be elusive and quick.  Jacobs might not have much success in this one, but Bradshaw might be able to break off a big run.
     This game will decide a lot in the NFL.  There are so many scenarios that can happen, pending the outcome of this game.  If the Giants win this week and next, they make the playoffs.  If the Jets win out, they make the playoffs.  Both teams can to lose this game and still have a chance, but they will need help to stay in the playoff hunt.  If the Giants lose, they will still have a chance at the division, if the Cowboys lose to the Eagles this week, the Eagles lose next week, and the Giants take care of the Cowboys next week.  If the Giants lose this week and win next week, and the Eagles win this week and next week, then the Eagles will win the division.  The Jets scenario might get even messier, with the Bengals, Titans, Oakland, and San Diego all still in the race.  It is a mess for the playoffs, but this game will help solve the playoff puzzle.
     I think when all is said and done, the Jets will win this game.  It is going to be close but the Jets have what it takes to limit the damage from Manning.  I think the Jets rushing attack will prove to be the difference, and the Jets will solidify their playoff hopes this Christmas Eve.
Jets (-3)

Broncos vs. Bills
I am looking for Tebow to go to Buffalo and win this game.  He threw the ball well against the Patriots and actually showed a lot more conventional quarterback skill.  He will be able to throw against Buffalo, but with snow in the forecast, he might have to hand if off even more.  The Broncos lead the league in rushing with 163 yards per game, and Buffalo has given up the 3rd most yards, 139.5, on the ground this season.  A great matchup for the Broncos here and a chance for them to be one game away from winning the AFC West.  If they win here, then they return home to play the Chiefs on New Years Day.
Broncos (-3)

Jaguars vs. Titans
The Titans are fighting for a playoff spot still and the Jaguars are just waiting for the season to be over.  Titans are tough at home and I think they pull it off easily to stay alive.
Titans (-7.5)

Cardinals vs. Bengals
The Bengals are still alive in the AFC playoff picture, but the Cardinals can put up a fight.  I think the Cardinals keep it close in this one.
Cardinals (+6)

Dolphins vs. Patriots
The Patriots are playing for playoff positioning at this point.  The Dolphins have been winning or keeping it close as of late, and will again in Foxboro.
Dolphins (+10)

Browns vs. Ravens
The Ravens are trying to lock up the division after coming off a loss against the Chargers.  I think they win, but not in a blowout.
Browns (+13)

Vikings vs. Redskins
The Vikings are reeling, and the Redskins have some fight left in them after their blowout against the Giants last week.  Grossman and Moss have been working nicely together since Moss came back from injury, look for more of the same here.
Redskins (-6.5)

Raiders vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs might have something gong with a new coach and Orton behind center.  I don't think it will be a very high scoring game for either side, but I like the Chiefs in this one.  The Raiders are not out of it yet but they have to have a lot go right, and I don't think they'll win this one.
Chiefs (-2)

Bucs vs. Panthers
Look for Newton to have a good game and beat the Bucs at home.
Panthers (-7.5)

Rams vs. Steelers
Steelers are trying to rebound after losing in San Fran last week.  Both teams are banged up so this should be close.
Rams (+13)

Chargers vs. Lions
The Lions are coming off an exciting win and both teams still have playoff hopes.  I think this one is decided by a couple points, the team with the last possession wins this game.
Lions (-1.5)

49ers vs. Seahawks
The Seahawks are hot right now and the 49ers have not allowed a rushing TD.  Should be interesting against a red hot Lynch.  I think he breaks through against them at home.
Seahawks (+2)

Eagles vs. Cowboys 
I think the Eagles beat the Cowboys in Dallas, and with a Giants loss, things stay interesting in the NFC East.
Eagles (+3)

Bears vs. Packers
The Packers will rebound from their first loss last week.  They should rout the Bears at home on Christmas night.
Packers (-12)

MNF
Falcons vs. Saints
The Saints are home but the Falcons usually play them tough.  This one will be close and I will take the Falcons to stay close in this one.
Falcons (+7)


TNF -  http://nargonsports.blogspot.com/2011/12/thursday-night-football-week-16_21.html

The Rest of Week 12 Picks

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Week 12

Vikings vs. Falcons
Vikes playing in Atlanta, where Atlanta never loses.  They are without Adrian Peterson, and without him, they won’t have a chance here.  I think winning by 10 is not too much to ask here.
Falcons (-9.5) Win

Browns at Bengals
The Bengals return home after coming a TD short against Pittsburgh and in Baltimore.  Browns barely hung on again Jacksonville at home last week.  I expect the Bengals to deal with the browns easily in this game.
Bengals (-7) Loss

Bucs vs. Titans
Titans are giving 3 in this one, and I think if the Bucs recover from their loss last week at the Packers, then I think they win this game.  They fought against the Packers so it going to be interesting to see if they still have it in them this week.
Bucs (+3) Loss

Panthers vs. Colts
Newton puts on a show every week, but the defense gets beaten up every game.  The Colts have nothing to defend though, and I see Newton getting his first road win in this one.
Panthers (-3.5) Win

Cardinals vs. Rams
Both teams can’t put it together this year, but im going to go with the better QB in this one.  Although he has had a terrible season, I still like Bradford and think he can pull this one out at home.  Kolb is once again out for the Cardinals so Skelton will start, and I don’t think he will be able to win this game for the Cardinals.
Rams (-2.5) Loss

Bills vs. Jets
Jets need a win if they want to have a chance for the playoffs.  Simply put, if they can not beat a Bills team that can’t buy a win and that lost their best player, then they don’t deserve to make the playoffs.  I look for Sanchez to fall back on his favorite target from last year, Dustin Keller.  If he finds the guy he is comfortable with again, then he will be bale to relax and get the big win here.  I think the Jets get it done this week and take advantage of a wounded Bills team.
Jets (-9.5) Loss

Texans vs. Jaguars
Jacksonville’s offense is horrendous.  Even with Matt Leinart starting at QB for Houston, I think they will win this game.  They might get over 100 rushing yards from both Tate and Foster in this one, and if Leinart can just get the ball out, then Andre Johnson will have a great game in his return this weekend.
Texans (-6.5) Win

Bears vs. Raiders
Chicago is without Cutler and will rely heavily on Forte.  I think Forte needs to have a huge game, but he is only averaging 3.18 yards per carry in the last 2 weeks.  Chicago needs to hope that he is not tiring out, because with Caleb Hanie behind center replacing Cutler, it is going to be a run first offense, but not sure if its enough in Oakland against Palmer who is 2-1 as their starter.  McFadden is still out, but Bush is filling in great and I think they will win this one.
Raiders (-3) Win

Redskins vs. Seahawks
Washington gets Moss back this weekend and are coming off an OT loss to Dallas at home.  They can air it out with Grossman starting again but Seattle is a tough place to get a win.  I think it will be a close game, and I will take the Redskins getting 3.
Redskins (+3) Win

Patriots vs. Eagles
Patriots should win this game, but I wonder if the huge win in New York sparks the Eagles.  I think they stick close to the Patriots in this game if they play inspired.  If they fall behind early, then I think they get blown out.
Eagles (+3.5) Loss

Broncos vs. Chargers
Each week the Chargers push Norv Turner closer and closer to the exit door.  Rivers leads the league in interceptions and the Broncos have been playing good defense as of late.  Plus, the Broncos have Tebow, so therefore I am not thinking about this game much, instead, I am just taking Tebow.  I mean the Broncos.
Broncos (+6) Win

Steelers vs. Chiefs
Pittsburgh has had a week of rest to get Big Bens thumb healthy.  They face a reeling Kansas City team, and will take this game.
Steelers (-10.5) Win

Giants vs. Saints
Giants usually play close games on the road and the Saints tend to let good offenses keep games close.  The Giants are unpredictable and with them getting 7.5 points, I feel fairly confident in them.  I don't think it's too much of a stretch to think they could win this game.  I think both teams will utilize their tight ends a lot in this one.  Ballard seems to be impressing people with his play this year for the Giants, and Graham is one of the best tight ends in football.  Expect both quarterback to use them heavily in this game. 
Giants (+7.5) Loss

Week 11...A Week I'd Like To Forget...

courtesy © NFL

WOW...what a week...If only my picks were as good as my fantasy team!  So...what went wrong?

Jets vs. Tebow (Broncos) Read my article on Tebow.  We all know how this story ends.
Jets (-6) LOSS

Titans vs. Falcons
As i predicted, a lack of Julio Jones meant an explosive game from Roddy White, complimented by Tony Gonzalez.  White, 7 for 147, and Gonzalez, 5 for 74 and a TD. 
Falcons (-5.5)  WIN

Bills vs. Dolphins
Wow...goodbye to the Bills.  I gave them credit and thought maybe it was just a couple bad losses, and this is what I get in return?  Matt Moore is trying to prove they never needed Luck.
Bills (+2) LOSS

Bengals vs. Ravens
This game could have ended very differently had the refs not, in my mind, blown a call.  An originally ruled TD on the field was overturned to an incomplete pass...I understand why, but don't agree with the rule.  The receiver carried the ball across the end zone and then fell out of bounds and dropped it.  The ball already crossed.  The whole ruling gets me angry.  It is common since that it was a TD...Cincy settled for a field goal, instead of the TD with 5 min left, and came up just short.  Two weeks in a row though taking on a tough divisional opponent, and falling just short.  Shows a lot about the Bengals, they are for real.
Bengals (+7) PUSH

Jaguars vs. Browns
Held my breath here...after Cleveland missed a field goal, the Jags got down the field and had a 4th and goal and 1 second left on the 1 yard line...and they couldn't get it in. Too close for me. 
Browns (-1.5) WIN

Raiders vs. Vikings
Raiders almost gave this one away, but held on.  Bush continued to fill in nicely for McFadden, going 30 for 109.
Raiders (+1)  WIN

Panthers vs. Lions
This was just a crazy game and the game of the day for me.  Cam led the Panthers to a 17 point second quarter lead, and held a 27-14 lead at halftime.  Then came the collapse of the Panthers, as I come to expect.  21 straight points by the Lions, and a 35-27 lead in the fourth quarter, before Cam did it again.  He stormed down field, and got a 6 yard rushing TD, followed by a 2-point conversion to Steve Smith.  35-35. Then a pick by Cam and a quick 2 TDs later, and the Panthers lose again and the Lions cover.  And Stafford, who started the game with 2 picks, ended up throwing 5 TD's after the picks.  What a game.
Panthers (+7) LOSS

Buccaneers vs. Packers
Bucs kept fighting, and kept it closer than I thought it would be.  Had it not been for a very rare pick by Rodgers in the fourth, then it was looking like a 15 point game.
Packers (-14) LOSS

Cowboys vs. Redskins
Skins put on a show here and wouldn't go down easy, pushing it to OT, and turning my push, into a loss.  Another impressive game out of Murray, rushing 25 times for 73 yards and catching 6 passes for 32 yards.  Felix Jones returned, but for only 5 carries and 18 yards.  Murray has ignited this team and although they didn't blow the Skins out, they continue to roll.
Dallas (-7) LOSS

Cardinals vs. 49ers
49er's were too dominant on defense, limiting Beanie Wells to 33 yards and forcing him to fumble.  Skelton got forced out of the game after a 6 for 19 performance, for 99 yards and 3 INT's.
Cardinals (+10) LOSS

Seahawks vs. Rams
Nothing from the Rams in this one, a weak performance against a bad team, one that I thought was worse than the Rams.
Rams (-3)  LOSS

Chargers vs. Bears
Bears continue to dominate, although Cutler looks like he needs season ending surgery on his broken thumb.  They dominated the second half of this one and take away another huge win and continue roll, as the Chargers are in full collapse mode.  They did this without gaudy numbers from Forte (20 for 57), but without Cutler going forward, Forte will have to resume what he had been doing all season.
Bears (-4.5) WIN

Eagles vs. Giants
Giants continue to do what they can to give away the NFC East.  Giants could not find any offense in this one.  And when they were still given a chance in the final minutes, Eli coughed it up to pretty much end the game.  A terrible loss for them and now they have to deal with the Cowboys for the division.  They needed this game at home against a hurt Eagles team, but tonight, the Eagles had more heart.  This was their must win game, against their rivals, and they showed up.
Giants (-5.5) LOSS

Chiefs vs. PatriotsPats dominate the second half at home, like they should against a depleted Chiefs team.  In the process, increase their lead in the AFC East.
Patriots (-14.5) WIN

My Week 11 picks: 5-8-1