December Delirium

March Madness has made its way to December.  A few weeks ago, there seemed to be a clear picture in terms of who would play for the National Championship.  But now, there are three teams and only two can play in the National Championship game, #1 LSU, #2 Alabama, and #3 Oklahoma State.  The first weekend of December will see conference title games, and two of these three teams will be in action.  LSU will be playing in the SEC title game against #14 Georgia, while Oklahoma State takes on #10 Oklahoma with the Big 12 title up for grabs.  What about Alabama?  Well, they lost to LSU, therefore did not qualify for the title game.  This leads many to believe that Alabama is not worthy to play in the National Championship game...with the theory being: not only did they have their chance to beat LSU, but because of their one blemish, they are not even playing in the SEC title game.  With three teams in the hunt for the title, there are many scenarios that can play out this weekend...lets take a look at a few.

LSU Wins and Oklahoma State Loses
     Easy one here, LSU #1, Alabama remains #2 as Stanford would not be able to leapfrog OSU and Alabama, therefore resulting in the LSU vs. Alabama rematch.  This would leave some people angry with the rematch, but it would be very hard to argue the outcome.  Rest assured, it does not sit well that Alabama got in without winning their conference, but they also didn't lose on the last weekend...and in terms of college football polls...it is all about when you lose. 

LSU Loses and Oklahoma State Wins
     Here we go again.  In my opinion, LSU would remain in the title game, but this might be the messiest scenario.  If LSU goes to #2, then who takes #1?  Oklahoma State should take #1, so that leaves Alabama out?  I do not see any way Alabama could remain in the top 2, but it is completely possible.  What would happen if the computers find that Alabama and LSU are 1 and 2...and neither won their conference?  That would not be good for college football.  It can happen, but it is more likely in the next scenario. I think in this situation though LSU would fall to #2, and Oklahoma State would take #1.  The BCS has always favored those who have a game over those who have the week off.  With Alabama not deserving the conference title game, it would be more justified for them to lose a spot in the standings, and for LSU to keep theirs top 2 ranking.  When Alabama lost to LSU, they only dropped from second to third, so a one spot drop for LSU would not be crazy.

LSU and Oklahoma State Lose
     LSU to #2 and Alabama #1 by default?  I think that is more likely in this scenario than the last, but once again we will be looking at a title game with neither team winning their conference.  A terrible situation for the BCS.  Do we begin to think about Stanford and Luck creeping in at this point and playing for the title?  Their BCS numbers are a bit lower than the other three at this point, so it is very hard to move them up here.  I do not know if they would have the numbers at this time to propel them, and they are not playing in their conference title game, the inaugural Pac-12 title game, so it would be that much more difficult to move up two spots.  It would be very interesting though.  Any way you slice this one, its going to be a mess.

LSU and Oklahoma State Win
     With this scenario, I think it might come down to how impressive the win against Oklahoma is for Oklahoma State.  If they absolutely hand it to Oklahoma, then this will fare very well for them, and they might gain some votes in the human polls which make up a part of the computer poll.  There will inevitably be controversy if OSU wins and they remain #3.  The same can be said if they win and jump over idle Alabama to claim a shot at the National Championship.  Either way, this will leave people very unhappy and controversy is going to ensue. 
     I am torn on what I would like to see if LSU and Oklahoma State win this weekend.  OSU will be facing a quality opponent while Alabama has the week off.  Last week however, OSU did not have a game, and the last game they played was a loss, yet remained in third place.  Alabama went to Auburn and routed them 42-14.  If OSU was not penalized for their week off, then how can Alabama be penalized?  At the same time...how can Alabama be in the National Championship game...and not even win their own conference?  The fact that they lost to LSU is the only reason that they are still in the championship talks.  It allows them to be excused to an extent and keep their hope alive. 
     At the end of the day, if LSU and Oklahoma State win, we would have two teams with the same record in Alabama and Oklahoma State.  OSU would have won their conference, but also would have lost to a team to an unranked team, on the road, towards the end of the season.  On the other hand, we would have Alabama, who did not win their conference, had the same record overall, but whose only loss was to the # 1 team in the country at home. Personally, I would enjoy either game, but if Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma then I think they should be in the title game simply based on the fact that although I do want to see a rematch, I do not think it would be good for college football to see an all SEC National Championship game.

Not in favor of a rematch? Remember Super Bowl XLII?

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     With so many speculations that the BCS Championship will be a rematch of LSU and Alabama, it is impossible to ignore that many people do not want to see a rematch.  I am not a huge fan of the BCS system, in fact, this article was originally intended to be an argument in how this season parallels a playoff, if Division I had one.  Since the first LSU vs. Alabama game, it has been team after team going down and losing their chances at the National Championship, and opening the door for Alabama and LSU to square off again.  This would match up arguably the two best NCAA teams, which is what the BCS system is intended to do.  This year, there looks like there will be no huge standout snub.  Thankfully, there probably won't be a 2003 situation, when USC finished 1 in both the AP and Coaches' poll, but came in third in the computer calculations, leaving them to simply watch the championship game...Unless LSU beats Arkansas, and loses in the SEC Title game, while #2 Alabama and #3 Arkansas (both in the SEC West), do not have to play an extra game.  LSU would have everything to lose, and nothing to gain.  If LSU beats Arkansas, then even if they lost in the SEC title game (by a close margin), it would not be impossible for them to still play in the National Championship.  Although in this situation, there would be a team that would be snubbed in one way or another.
     Assuming we see the rematch of LSU and Alabama, it will be hard not to hear the critics who do not want this.  The first matchup received the second highest viewed college game on CBS since 1987...so there still would be a lot of people who will want to see this match-up.  Perhaps it will draw criticism because there were no touchdowns scored in the first match-up, a 9-6 overtime win by LSU.  College football fans are used to the high powered offenses and this game was a defensive battle.  To all the people who do not want to see this rematch however, I want to remind everyone of Super Bowl XLII. 
     The Patriots and Giants played each other in an exciting game in week 17 of the 2007 regular season, as the Patriots escaped with a 38-35 win to go 16-0 in the regular season.  A little over a month later, the world saw one of the greatest Super Bowl's ever played with the Patriots going for a perfect 19-0.  The rematch of the Patriots and Giants made for an all-time classic game.  It was a game that no one could have scripted, but that everyone was talking about for years to come.  At no point was anyone thinking, "this game is lessened because it's a rematch".  The first game was amazing, and the second was even better.  Why are people so quick to assume that a rematch of LSU and Alabama would not be even better than the first?  It is not as though the first game was a blowout, it was a 3 point game!
     Although I would still love to see a playoff system, where we can have Cinderella stories such as in the NCAA basketball tournament, the BCS system would at least be serving its purpose, whether we disagree with its purpose or not.  If we can't have a playoff system, then we have to make sure the two best teams play each other, and if both LSU and Alabama win out, then there would be no doubt in many peoples' minds, who the two best teams are.  Some may not want to see the match-up again, but no one wants to see a team that should be in the title game left out, just because it would be a rematch.

Huge Upset Will Mean a BCS Shakeup

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     Oklahoma State held their destiny in their hands.  With two games left, including one at home against rival #5 Oklahoma on December 3.  They took the field with heavy hearts after the OSU women basketball coaches died in a plane crash Thursday night.  The game began with a moment of silence for Kurt Budke, Miranda Serna, and two others who died in the crash Thursday night.  With so much on their minds, would OSU be able to play a football game? 
    Oklahoma State entered with a 10-0, 7-0 Big 12 record, against an Iowa State team that was 5-4, and 2-4 in the Big 12.  Iowa State entered with an 0-18 record all time record vs. teams ranked #1 or #2 in the nation.  Iowa State trailed 17-7 at halftime and tied the game up in the fourth quarter after holding OSU to only 7 points in the second half.  Iowa State sideline looked exhausted, after nearly 100 offensive plays in regulation.  They would take their first lead of the game, 31-24, on the first play of overtime, a 25 yard touchdown pass.  After Oklahoma tied it 31-31 in their first possession, they would throw an interception on the first play of the 2nd OT.  This opened the door for Iowa State if they could get any score with their offensive possession.  They rushed three times for 25 yards, ending the drive in the end zone, and completing a huge upset 37-31. 
    With Oklahoma State losing, the doors are open for some one loss teams to creep into the #2 spot in the BCS standings.  #1 LSU still has to play Ole Miss tomorrow, and #6 Arkansas, but assuming they win out, that leaves one spot to be filled for the national championship.  #3 Alabama and #4 Oregon would be in line to have a chance for a rematch against LSU in the title game, both teams lost to LSU earlier in the season.  Alabama would have the slight edge if everyone wins out.  #5 Oklahoma would need a little more help and #6 Arkansas could still have a chance if they can upset LSU.  It should be an exciting final two weeks, but things really took a turn tonight with the huge upset by the Cyclones in Ames, Iowa.